Hidden outs

[amachur]

I've been reading this section in SSHE, and I'm really struggling with grasping it. They show how to come up with a weighted average to count your hidden outs, but it's impossible to do while playing. Past this, the book only shows how to count the outs if you know your opponents' hand.

So my question is how does everyone else count hidden outs when they're playing? The book makes it sound like a crucial concept to avoid folding top pair too often, and I know this could very well be a leak in my game.

Examples would be awesome, thanks.

[Zeldark]

You have pocket aces versus a guy with 89. The board is 489. So you have one pair versus his 2 pair. Your "normal" outs are 2 more aces. But if the turn or the river is a 4 you improve to a better 2 pair. So you have 3 hidden outs in the form of the remaining 4s.

Edit: In this example, let's say he's a normally passive villain and he raises. So we suspect he has 2 pair, maybe a set. On the assumption he has 2 pair, we know that if the board pairs there's a chance we pull ahaed. Especially if the turn-river pair each other.

[amachur]

Okay, let's say on a board like that with a turn raise we can put our opponent on either 99, 88, 44, and 98. Does that mean I count the hidden outs and divide by about three? (Given the number of ways to have these hands)

[nomadtla]

The actual acurate math is not something any of us can do in our head (at least not in the 15 seconds we have to make a decision online). The important thing to do is learn the concepts and see how they affect your decisions. Perhaps take some time and think of different hands of different boards and how they play out togeter. Or take time and play with the likelyhood of particular hands based on the board. Again the exact math stuff is stuff we do away from the table so when we are at a table we can have a reasonable estimation of where we may stand.

Sometimes you will estimate the likelyhood of different hands for your opponent and he will turn over something you hadn't even thought of. The important thing is to give your mind practice in the thought processes so you can make informed decisions, though they may not allways be mathmatically perfect ones.

[infinity235]

You have to weigh the probability of your opponent holdings those hands. So, for example, 98 seems rather unlikely, whereas 99 is less likely if your opponent has not raised preflop.

In practice, this is all a matter of feel. The point SSHE is making is that you can one or another out to your odd calculations because you might have a hidden out.

[Shillx]

It is a pretty worthless concept TBTH

[aK13]

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It is a pretty worthless concept TBTH

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HAHAHAHA

I'm lol'ing so hard.

[Aaron W.]

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So my question is how does everyone else count hidden outs when they're playing? The book makes it sound like a crucial concept to avoid folding top pair too often, and I know this could very well be a leak in my game.

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It's not as complicated as it seems. It's really just a justification for why calling down when it's close is often the correct play (instead of trying to make thin folds). You sometimes "accidentally" win when you hit a hidden out.

[amachur]

Thanks for the replys. This is helping put it into perspective for me. So would you guys say that whether or not you call a turn raise with TPGK or an overpair more on dependent on reads, pot size, and the number of players in the pot?

[RemyXO]

I started going trhough replies and gave up. They just confirmed what I already knew - if you neve ever heard about hidden outs in your life, your game wouldn't suffer a bit.
They MAY be useful if for some reason you can put opponent on an exact hand (god luck with that). This stuff has purely theoretic interest.