25NL 98s Flopped Straight on Monotone Board

[Bodhidharma]

BB was a solid player: 22/12 after 200 hands. The fact that he didn't push on the flop me made me think he had to have flopped a flush. He would have raised TT+, AK so that narrows his range. I'm just making sure I'm not being to nittish here.

Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $28.39
BB: $23.11
UTG: $4.94
Hero (CO): $25.79
BTN: $39.72

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, SB folds, BB checks

Flop: ($1.10) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1.10</font>, UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.00</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $14.10</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $9.10 returned to BB

Pot Size: $11.10 ($0.44 Rake)

[relativity_x]

ummm, a few things first. This is not a monotone board. You have the sucker straight. Secondly, if you're going to play this hand, raise to 1.25 to eliminate the btn limping and to ensure you'll have position throughout the hand.

Other than that, I'd say you played it well. the 3bet on the flop was needed to see where you're at. His 4 bet let's you know you're toast.

[holdme]

an overlimp is okay imo, good considering utg's stacksize. this is not a monotone board? also villain could still have a draw, but i gotta think calling is -ev, given your thought process, although folding doesn't feel right.

[greggg230]

Eh, it's tough.

His range is pretty broad here. He could easily be on a draw here (Ah or Kh). If you're sure he would have raised TT+ pre-flop, then I'm leaning towards a fold.

[relativity_x]

I think the biggest thing here is that our hand is not improving.

If he has any Axh/Kxh, he has a gutshot/open ender plus flush. I think it's an easy fold given his strength on the flop.

[ReptileHouse]

Not a monotone board? Huh? It's all hearts. That's as monotone as it gets.

I don't mind pre-flop calling. I'll raise it often for the reasons you state, among others, but this hand plays well multiway, so just calling sometimes is OK. If UTG limp/folds pre-flop often, then I raise it all day, though.

You're not raising the flop to see where you're at. Get that notion out of your head right now. It will lose you money. When you flop a straight, you're raising for value against worse hands. Period.

Nit: villain 3bet, not 4bet. Hero made the first raise. If hero pushes, that's a 4bet.

Bet/3bet is a strong play from BB, that's for certain, especially in an unraised pot. He's not bluffing. But is he "value betting" a worse hand? A set is unlikely, as he'll raise pre-flop with those pretty much always. Two pair hands, however, are very possible, although probably towards the bottom of his range. QT/QJ/JT type hands would definitely lead here and an aggro player might 3bet them. Pair+flush draw type hands, especially if they include a straight draw like KhJx are a HUGE part of his range for this play.

Whether you should fold or push depends on how likely you think villain is to fastplay his strong draws. He has no reason to believe you're anywhere near as strong as you are, as well.

By the way, that you're considering folding a flopped straight is a pretty good indicator of why playing strong draws aggressively, as well as strong made hands, is a winning play.

Bottom line, though, is that this is just a math problem.

The question we have is how often does villain need to have a flopped flush vs. a weaker made hand or strong draw for this to be a fold?

Let's take {QT,QJ,KhT,KhQ,KhJ,AhT,AhJ,AhQ,Ah9} as an approximation of a solid draw or two pair range for villain. That's probably a bit on the strong side since some of those would raise pre-flop, but including them actually makes the range stronger for villain, and being a bit pessimistic in our assumptions here is probably good just to be on the safe side. According to pokerstove, 98 has 71.9% equity against that range on this board. Villain is pot commited at this point, so push+call is a pot of 46ish.

We're drawing dead against a made flush, so that part of the equation is easy. We need our EV when he doesn't have a flush to be greater than $23 since that's what we'll lose when he has a flush. Let 'x' be the chance he has a flopped flush.

.72 * 46 * (1-x) &gt; 23

That works out to right about 30%. So if villain flopped a flush more than 30% of the time, we should fold. That's giving villain a ton of credit.

Note that this is quick math while I'm at work, so apologies in advance if I n00bed something up in it.

[relativity_x]

yes, I guess you're right. It is monotone. I generally think of monotone as dry, but I guess in the logistics they're not the same. The fact is that board is very wet. All kinds of things that beat us, and we have the worst of it besides one/two pair, which I doubt the villain plays this way.

edit:
[ QUOTE ]
So if villain flopped a flush more than 30% of the time, we should fold. That's giving villain a ton of credit.

[/ QUOTE ]

what in the hell does that have to do with anything? How can someone say if he flops flushes more than 30%?

[dimeetrees]

its less than 1% to flop a flush...think about it.. Theres a lot u beat here.

[ReptileHouse]

It's quantifying the data. The whole question here is whether villain has a flopped flush or not. If he doesn't, it's a clear call. If he does, it's an obvious fold. We don't know which it is, so we have to assign probabilities to each and make our decision based on the EV according to those probabilities.

Equations like this are how to think about poker. It's math and numbers. We do it here on the forums because it's too fast to do more than rough approximations at the tables. By working it through in detail here, we hone our instincts and learn to recognize common situations and make the right plays at the tables even when we don't know the exact numbers right then. When it's close, we work it out afterwards and if still unsure, we post the hand and get feedback.

[dimeetrees]

im a donk who pays off flopped flushes if i flopped a streight, just because its 1% to flop a flush and i dont run into it often enough to show a loss.