Bit confusing... (TPTK 3-way)

krishan · #1 03-02-2006, 11:06 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, MP calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP calls, Hero calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets.. I plan on calling or overcalling.

Preflop raiser is 49/6/1.3/36 over 5K hands. MP is
63/22/1.6/37 over 3200.

I think this is an example of when calling with AQ is superior to 3-betting preflop. I had a little trouble interpreting the call 3-bet by MP. After the hand I had definite opinions but at the time I was suprised/lost.

UTG leading out on the turn is also a bit strange and I had trouble interpreting that as well.

I feel like I played this hand quite suboptimally. When someone takes a strange line like the check 3-bet on the flop by MP or the lead on the turn by UTG I think we should be able to narrow hand ranges quite a bit. What actually happened in the hand was I decided my hand was good enough to showdown against action I didn't understand. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Thanks for your thoughts.

Krishan

jfunk · #2 03-02-2006, 12:52 PM

given the stats on these players, the flop 3-bettor (MP) is most likely to have a flush draw. his play is often consistent with a flopped set, with him going for your overcall on the turn given that he turned a boat. however, i find it hard to believe that a player with his stats is thinking like this. hence, i solidly put him on a flush draw.

The UTG is who worries me here. It doesn't seem like he'd bluff trip 9's here into two people with all the action that has happened so far. Given his prf raise % it is hard to give him a 9, given he raised UTG. But if he doesn't have a 9, it still seems likely that you are beat. He has to know he can't get both of you off your hand.

I agree that this is a tough spot and I would probably call down here even though I think it is a fold.

I'd love to hear other's thoughts on this.

colgin · #3 03-02-2006, 01:25 PM

MP call/three-bet on the flop sure looks like he is on a flush and/or straight draw of some sort (possibly OESD + BD flush or four-flush w/ gutshot, etc.) UTG could have overrrcards, over pair, underpair. Not knowing where you are, and with so many possible scare cards that could come on the turn if, in fact, MP is on a draw, I think it is OK to not cap the flop and wait to see the turn card.

The 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a pretty good card for you. It is unlikely to have helped MP and unless UTG has exactly A9 (or the unlikelier 99) him neither. You have to prtect your hand here I think. A free card would be pretty bad. Plus, the villains' reactions to yuor bet will should actually give you a pretty good idea where you stand and how to play the rest of the hand. As it is, UTG's bet smacks as protection against MP's likely strong draw, but you have no idea if he is protecting a hand that is beating you or behind (like TT or JJ). I think at that point you have to overcall the turn and call that blankish river card (although the call is a lot easier if MP folds).

Hock_ · #4 03-02-2006, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MP call/three-bet on the flop sure looks like he is on a flush and/or straight draw of some sort (possibly OESD + BD flush or four-flush w/ gutshot, etc.) UTG could have overrrcards, over pair, underpair. Not knowing where you are, and with so many possible scare cards that could come on the turn if, in fact, MP is on a draw, I think it is OK to not cap the flop and wait to see the turn card.

The 9 is a pretty good card for you. It is unlikely to have helped MP and unless UTG has exactly A9 (or the unlikelier 99) him neither. You have to prtect your hand here I think. A free card would be pretty bad. Plus, the villains' reactions to yuor bet will should actually give you a pretty good idea where you stand and how to play the rest of the hand. As it is, UTG's bet smacks as protection against MP's likely strong draw, but you have no idea if he is protecting a hand that is beating you or behind (like TT or JJ). I think at that point you have to overcall the turn and call that blankish river card (although the call is a lot easier if MP folds).

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Very nice post.

Nikla · #5 03-02-2006, 01:52 PM

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you have to overcall the turn and call that blankish river card (although the call is a lot easier if MP folds).

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Why is the call easier if MP folds?

MyssGuy · #6 03-02-2006, 01:59 PM

With UTG's low (6%) PFR, I'd put him on AA, KK, QQ or AK. MP could have a wider range of hands, but I think that the flush and/or straight draws are most likely. (Maybe it's just the fact that I saw a fish, thankfully, not cap a river when he hit the royal flush last night. I thanked him.)

I'm somewhat leaning towards UTG having QQ. (Putting fish hat on) He's afraid of getting out drawn by a flush, so he just calls the 3 bet. When he hits the boat on the turn, he leads out. MP just calls, going for the flush and/or straight. I'm curious to see what MP does on the river.

Personally, I think I'd take the same line:
[ QUOTE ]
What actually happened in the hand was I decided my hand was good enough to showdown against action I didn't understand.

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krishan · #7 03-02-2006, 02:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With UTG's low (6%) PFR, I'd put him on AA, KK, QQ or AK. MP could have a wider range of hands, but I think that the flush and/or straight draws are most likely.

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I think it's a mistake to range him this tightly simply because he might not raise AA/KK UTG (go for a lrr). I could be wrong. I don't have a default range for a tight UTG fishy raiser.

Krishan

JCDahmer · #8 03-02-2006, 02:15 PM

My guess is UTG has you beat with an overpair. I agree that MP is drawing a large portion of the time and after his flat call on the turn it seems pretty obvious. I just know that I cant fold top pair here. I make the crying call knowing UTG beats me but not sure its 90% of the time. Guys like this do some stupid stuff sometimes.

Spy Dog · #9 03-02-2006, 02:17 PM

I don't think anybody can decipher what UTG has. MP looks like JT or a flush draw. UTG might have the same. Who knows?

I like your turn call. It's dumb to raise when you are in doubt and put yourself in jeopardy of a 3-bet. I think you played it fine.

krishan · #10 03-02-2006, 02:25 PM

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I like your turn call. It's dumb to raise when you are in doubt and put yourself in jeopardy of a 3-bet. I think you played it fine.

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Even when you are getting a 2-1 overlay on your money?

Krishan