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#1
06-26-2007, 09:01 AM
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c-betting turn with a draw
Pokerroom 1/2, five-handed, Hero CO with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Villain unknown.
Pre-flop: UTG folds, Hero raises, Button and SB fold, BB calls. Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Villain checks, Hero bets, Villain calls. Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Villain checks, Hero .. .. checks. I think my check here is probably seriously bad as my hand has no showdown value, but the conflict of interest, i.e. trying to win the pot there and then vs taking a free card, confuses me. I'd appreciate any general advice or pointers to classic threads as to when and when not to c-bet the turn with a draw. 
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#2
06-26-2007, 09:03 AM
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Re: c-betting turn with a draw
Very easy bet. You have 15 cards to improve against most his holdings. You need to a fold a better hand or a worse hand with 6 outs fairly rarely for a bet to be +EV.
VERY VERY easy bet.
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#3
06-26-2007, 09:23 AM
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Re: c-betting turn with a draw
You can also reason this way: You got upto 15 outs. That equals about 33%. So this means that your bluff actully only costs you 66% of a BB because often you will hit. If you think he will fold more than 1/3 of the time go ahead and bet(The pot is only 3.25 BB so if he calls he probably has something and you can check/fold the river if you don't improve.
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#4
06-26-2007, 09:30 AM
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Re: c-betting turn with a draw
it costs you less than 66% of a bet because you get 33% of villains bet too if he calls
semibluffing is awesome and I will always bet this river if I get called on the turn. there are so many draws and 2 overcard hands out there, I want to steal the pot from Ax Kx Qx
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#5
06-26-2007, 09:37 AM
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Re: c-betting turn with a draw
actually a bluff costs only a third of a bet since if villain calls, a third of the bet he puts in is yours. So even in a small pot like this, risking only a third of a bet to win a 12x larger pot UI certainly seems worth it.
If the decision to semi bluff seems very very close to not being worth it due to one factor or another, I sometimes ck to improve implied odds (since people always bet call after a turn ck thru), particularly if my hand has showdown value and I can call a river bet UI profitably vs said villain, but here it is clear semi bluffing is better than cking.
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#6
06-26-2007, 09:28 PM
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Re: c-betting turn with a draw
I'm adjusting to short-handed from full-ring and I seem to find very few spots to not double c-bet.
It seems to be that it is far more likely to be a heads-up pot by the turn when playing short-handed (ldo?) and I can't bring myself to not bet vs one opponent.
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#8
06-26-2007, 10:12 PM
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Re: c-betting turn with a draw
He very well may be drawing to overcards here. If you continue betting and he doesn't hit, and neither does your draw, you'll be able to fold him on the river, and he'll probably be folding a better hand with a higher card than J.
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#10
06-27-2007, 02:01 AM
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Re: c-betting turn with a draw
[ QUOTE ]
actually a bluff costs only a third of a bet since if villain calls, a third of the bet he puts in is yours. So even in a small pot like this, risking only a third of a bet to win a 12x larger pot UI certainly seems worth it. [/ QUOTE ] i completely agree, but i have a question. given this analysis, when is it ever correct to follow the maxim "bet with no outs, check with outs"?
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