#1
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simple ev calculation
I have a disagreement with another SSNLer about ev calculations
I bet allin $5 into a $10 pot, villain always calls and wins (1-y)% ot the time. What's the ev? ev of folding is 0. Details of calculations please. |
#2
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Re: simple ev calculation
I think the ev= y(5+10)+(1-y)*(-5)
amIcorrect? |
#3
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Re: simple ev calculation
Let me make sure I understand. You are heads up and there is $10 in the pot, with no bet to you. You go all-in for $5 and are always called, so there is always $20 in the pot. You win fraction y of the time (I'm not using %, so an even chance of winning is y = 0.5, not y = 50%), so your EV is $20y - $5. That's the same as your formula.
I just took your expected winnings ($20y) and subtracted what you have to pay to get them. You took the amount you win if you win ($10 in the pot plus $5 supplied by the other player) times the chance of winning (y) plus the amount you "win" if you lose (-$5) times the chance of losing (1-y). |
#4
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Re: simple ev calculation
[ QUOTE ]
I just took your expected winnings ($20y) and subtracted what you have to pay to get them. You took the amount you win if you win ($10 in the pot plus $5 supplied by the other player) times the chance of winning (y) plus the amount you "win" if you lose (-$5) times the chance of losing (1-y). [/ QUOTE ] my problem with this calculation is that you don't always lose the $5 you that you bet. you lose it (1-y) percent of the time. |
#5
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Re: simple ev calculation
[ QUOTE ]
my problem with this calculation is that you don't always lose the $5 you that you bet. you lose it (1-y) percent of the time. [/ QUOTE ] You're correct, that's why there are two ways of doing the problem. In my way, I treated it as paying $5 to get a chance at $20. OP treated it as betting $5 against $15. So I'm buying a lottery ticket, he's making a bet. You get the same EV either way if you do the problem right. If you win, you collect a $20 pot. I treated the entire $20 as revenue, against a $5 expense. OP paid himself his $5 back, so he said he had only $15 of revenue by winning, but he only had to pay the $5 if he lost. So I say: $20y - $5 and OP says: $15y - $5(1 - y) =$15y - $5 + $5y =$20y - $5 and we agree. |
#6
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Re: simple ev calculation
original disagreement was that i wanted to count the pot as $20, not $15
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