NL 10 AK vs Shortie

CaptVimes · #1 06-23-2007, 05:02 PM

Villain is 46/6/.7 but that's only over 33 hands.

Check? Fold? Raise?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($13.05)
UTG+1 ($9.95)
MP1 ($10.15)
MP2 ($23.10)
MP3 ($10.30)
Hero ($10.10)
Button ($10)
SB ($6.05)
BB ($4.40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.4, 2 folds, BB calls $0.30.

Flop: ($0.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.6, BB calls $0.60.

Turn: ($2.05) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($2.05) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $2.05, Hero?

Specialwon · #2 06-23-2007, 06:35 PM

My feeling is that you're beat more often than not. So I certainly wouldn't be raising up. But, you're getting 2:1

His flop play says that he got some help from those cards, at least a straight draw and more likely a pair off the board. Then on the river he says "I have an ace" as loud as you could want. So I think he has A7 A9 and AJ a lot of the time. You are ahead of AQ AT and A8.

So, if you can stand the variance, I think a call is +ev.

LearningCurve · #3 06-23-2007, 06:48 PM

Well, his stats aren't over enough hands to have a genuine feel for his AF, but if the sample size was significant I think it would be a fairly easy fold. However, I am feeling fairly certain that he likes to see those flops and could therefore easily have a weak A. Although I'm not wanting to add any more to the pot, I don't think I could find a fold here.

CaptVimes · #4 06-23-2007, 07:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My feeling is that you're beat more often than not. So I certainly wouldn't be raising up. But, you're getting 2:1

His flop play says that he got some help from those cards, at least a straight draw and more likely a pair off the board. Then on the river he says "I have an ace" as loud as you could want. So I think he has A7 A9 and AJ a lot of the time. You are ahead of AQ AT and A8.

So, if you can stand the variance, I think a call is +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

With A7 & A9, the JJ on the board counterfits those two pair hands. Kicker plays correct? Crap, I gotta look that up.

Kos13 · #5 06-23-2007, 07:37 PM

Call.

LearningCurve · #6 06-23-2007, 07:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My feeling is that you're beat more often than not. So I certainly wouldn't be raising up. But, you're getting 2:1

His flop play says that he got some help from those cards, at least a straight draw and more likely a pair off the board. Then on the river he says "I have an ace" as loud as you could want. So I think he has A7 A9 and AJ a lot of the time. You are ahead of AQ AT and A8.

So, if you can stand the variance, I think a call is +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

With A7 & A9, the JJ on the board counterfits those two pair hands. Kicker plays correct? Crap, I gotta look that up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep...5 cards so kicker plays.

Specialwon · #7 06-24-2007, 04:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]

With A7 & A9, the JJ on the board counterfits those two pair hands. Kicker plays correct? Crap, I gotta look that up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh!

checkmate36 · #8 06-24-2007, 09:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

bottomset · #9 06-24-2007, 11:21 AM

allin