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#1
06-23-2007, 03:48 PM
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50NL Flopped set against a decent villian
Villian is 22/12/2 after 1052 hands, He ispretty decent, im pretty sure villian 2p2 some, seems to mix things up a good bit sometimes seems aggro sometimes seems really weak/passive. But im not concerned so much about the flop. The turn tho I was wondering whats the best line here?? I just wanta see others thoughts and see if they agree with mine
No limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 6 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $47.50 UTG+1: $53.58 Hero: $103.50 Button: $78.22 SB: $99.50 BB: $74.05 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls. Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($10, 4 players) SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $9.5</font>, SB calls, 2 folds. Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($29, 2 players) SB checks, Hero ? 
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#2
06-23-2007, 03:58 PM
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Re: 50NL Flopped set against a decent villian
You're both pretty deep and that is leading me to check behind here for pot control. You are likely infront, but if not I'd much rather take a free card than have to call a shove for a stack, especially with position on the river and a good chance of filling up. Villain called a very stiff flop bet and doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
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#3
06-23-2007, 04:04 PM
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Re: 50NL Flopped set against a decent villian
stack 99 or 44 gonna be tough with the flush coming out. You cant worry about it, but you have to worry about a 4-flush card on river, so bet good here, so if he pushes youll have odds to call and fill up.
I stack/go broke here everytime and feel good about it
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#4
06-23-2007, 04:08 PM
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Re: 50NL Flopped set against a decent villian
I think you have to bet this... you do NOT want to let a 4th spade peel off. The chances of that are higher than your filling up. If he's holding the ace of spades, he'll probably call a reasonable bet, so that's a draw you need to charge him for.
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#5
06-23-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: 50NL Flopped set against a decent villian
A lot of money is going in the river here regardless, I think AK is a possible (but unlikely) hold that shouldn't be discounted although AQ and AJ spades are more likely. If you bet 23 or so here and he shoves you do have to call, but that doesn't make betting +EV.
Pot control is goot, check behind and call a nice sized river bet, you may be able to induce a bluff this way too.
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#6
06-23-2007, 04:27 PM
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Re: 50NL Flopped set against a decent villian
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to bet this... you do NOT want to let a 4th spade peel off. The chances of that are higher than your filling up. [/ QUOTE ] Sorry dude, gonna be pedantic here. If we assume villain holds exactly 1 spade then there are 9 remaining spades in the deck. We can also remove the 4s as that will fill us up. So there are 8 cards we don't want to see. We can fill up or make quads with any 9, 4, 2 or K = 10 outs.
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#8
06-23-2007, 04:52 PM
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Re: 50NL Flopped set against a decent villian
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#9
06-23-2007, 04:56 PM
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Re: 50NL Flopped set against a decent villian
I misunderstood what deal was saying. I see now that he was just arguing with the fact that it is more likely for a spade to come off than us filling up. I thought he was saying it would be proper to check the turn if we thought the villain had a single spade.
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