10NL - Overs + NFD, Is this a 3-bet flop everytime?

[ev_slave]

Checking up on my game, I was looking through PT and saw a hand that I thought my call may have been so-so. After checking the numbers, I was surprised when the math says I should RR the flop against a lot of the plausible range. Is the big RR on this sort of hand needing to be a standard in my game? I know anything with 15+ outs on the flop should be played to get the chips in, but that requires that my overs be live... how often should I figure that that's the case?

Note - On this particular hand, I can't RR the flop since Villain is AI, but the hand still illustrates the concept I'm looking at.

Villain is 43/9/3.88(TA) over 105 hands

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($0.9, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.6</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $2.6</font>, Hero calls.

[justhetip]

I think you have to look at the texture of the board. When it is connected like this, you are often looking at pair+straight draw, higher pockets, and pair plus flush draw.

On less connected boards, I believe the probability of sets goes up and that is where you may have to reevaluate. Hope this makes sense.

Also villain is important, as some will never call your all in with just a pair.

[ben wb]

This is fine, you are a favourite over most overpairs, k8, etc. and he could easily have something like that.

[andrew484]

I think this is fine, but it probably has a fairly neutral EV. You need to win this hand about 50% of the time for the call to be correct, and there are 15 cards that improve your hand. Sometimes the overcards won't give you the best hand, and sometimes the villain will end up with a full house when you hit your flush, so I'd say you have maybe 12 outs on average when behind. That gives you about 45% equity, but sometimes he's going to be doing it with a naked straight draw and you'll already be ahead, so you should win more than 50% of the time, although not by much IMO.

[elstunar]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is fine, but it probably has a fairly neutral EV. You need to win this hand about 50% of the time for the call to be correct, and there are 15 cards that improve your hand. Sometimes the overcards won't give you the best hand, and sometimes the villain will end up with a full house when you hit your flush, so I'd say you have maybe 12 outs on average when behind. That gives you about 45% equity, but sometimes he's going to be doing it with a naked straight draw and you'll already be ahead, so you should win more than 50% of the time, although not by much IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]ummm, he's getting 4.1:2 or a little over 2:1 odds, he needs to be good here like 33% of the time to be neutral EV

[andrew484]

Whoops, yeah, I didn't include that last bet in the pot size when I figured it. So yeah that makes this a very +EV call.

[creamfillin]

This call is very +EV