Bubble of a FTP Freeroll - When is folding here good?

[zatacka]

Well played, playing for just coming itm is a losing play in the long run.

[seke2]

Sounds like a weird payout structure. If 90th = $8 and 19th = $9 then in some weird way it might be more $EV to fold because winning this pot certainly would not guarantee you would make the final 2 tables where all the money is. But to make that big money, you're going to need a big stack eventually. And here, if you think you have an equity edge AND you think you might actually have some FE here, it's probably too +cEV to make up for whatever $EV implications are at play here.

[MJBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Well played, playing for just coming itm is a losing play in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

In real tournaments where itm scales and you have a buy-in...yes.

If I was in a freeroll and 90th place paid out 20k and my current BR was 500 dollars, I'd fold that [censored] all day.


So the question is definately how that money compares to your BR, imo. Doubtful that it's a huge boost, obviously, but it's free money with no risk and no ROI involvement.

[FalloutGirl]

i like what mjbuddy said. if it were me i would definately push all in.

[zatacka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well played, playing for just coming itm is a losing play in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

In real tournaments where itm scales and you have a buy-in...yes.

If I was in a freeroll and 90th place paid out 20k and my current BR was 500 dollars, I'd fold that [censored] all day.


So the question is definately how that money compares to your BR, imo. Doubtful that it's a huge boost, obviously, but it's free money with no risk and no ROI involvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is -EV in the long run, it doesnt matter for me how big % of my bankroll it is. Poker is all about making good decisions and i wouldnt forgive myself for folding here since im way ahead of his range.

so [censored] that 20k and gogogoo for the million

[woohoo88]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well played, playing for just coming itm is a losing play in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

In real tournaments where itm scales and you have a buy-in...yes.

If I was in a freeroll and 90th place paid out 20k and my current BR was 500 dollars, I'd fold that [censored] all day.


So the question is definately how that money compares to your BR, imo. Doubtful that it's a huge boost, obviously, but it's free money with no risk and no ROI involvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is -EV in the long run, it doesnt matter for me how big % of my bankroll it is. Poker is all about making good decisions and i wouldnt forgive myself for folding here since im way ahead of his range.

so [censored] that 20k and gogogoo for the million

[/ QUOTE ]

Just wanted to point out that folding is always neutral EV.

[MJBuddy]

But you won't get a million if you double up. You'll get 20k.

And in this relative stance, the payout structure is so stiff that he would have to double up *multiple* times to make anymore than 20k.

Folding is always +EV in a tournament if someone is about to be elminated and you are not in danger of the blinds swallowing you.

Calling when you are ahead is taking a coin flip +EV situation, which is always profitable UNLESS you are playing above your bankroll and landing ITM is a signifigant increase to your income.

Like I said, if his bankroll is 200k, [censored] the 9 dollars. If his bankroll is 100 dollars, 9 dollar cashout is signifigant. Yes, even as much as 9 dollars is signifigant to a 100 dollar BR.

I'm not saying his play is bad; he wanted to win and was fine risking the 9 dollars to do it.

You sincerely need to read/review TPFAP, Zatacka.

[jt082005]

If you were sure a fold = ITM then just fold. As said before he pretty much would call with anything, you may get something better or may get another HU which wouldn't be bad