50NL - Nuts, river bet sizing question.

[shoxbb6]

Villain is 30/25/4 over ~70 hands. Haven't seen him go to showdown yet. I got my stack from AA v KK.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $77.80
BB: $135.10
UTG: $50.00
Hero (CO): $96.60
BTN: $50.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, BTN calls $2.00, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($6.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.75</font>, BTN calls $4.75, <font color="red">SB raises to $9.50</font>, Hero calls $4.75, BTN folds

Turn: ($30.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $15.00</font>, SB calls $15.00

River: ($60.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, hero?

[Yaboosh]

With 50 left to bet, I can't imagine anything substantial being called when a push wouldn't be called.

[Lego05]

I don't think you're like ever gonna get called here.

I'd bet like 1/2 pot or so...maybe a little less I think.

[orange]

shoving is fine. Or betting something dirty like $15-$30 might be fine too.

[vixticator]

If he can call he calls a shove, right? I'm like 95% sure he's playing the board.

[DannyOcean_]

wow this is a dirty spot. i don't think he calls a push without the 2nd nuts, so i almost never ever push here.

I think if we value bet him a dirty little small one, like 20 dollars, he will call with 9-7 of diamonds, and maybe with less or no diamonds just to bluff catch.

But he's never calling a push here. so i do a dirty little value bet.

[Yaboosh]

I think people are missing that he called the turn when it was a 4 diamond board. The Jd made it that Hero has one less high flush. If he has the 9d only ONE card beats him, and that would be a royal flush. People never get royal flushes, so obviously the 9d is good.

I think the call on the turn makes this a definite push. I don't think that people are calling a bet of 25 dollars more than twice as often as a push.

[HighSteaks]

I'm going with 30, I'd hate not to get paid off, the shove might just convince the right person he is beat here, but I take the point above.

[bored]

I push. I think smaller [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s do call here.