AA when K Flops

[JNash]

Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 10 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter

SB: $116.80
BB: $53.60
UTG: $45.90
UTG+1: $66.80
UTG+2: $169.35
Hero (MP1): $133.15
MP2: $98.70
MP3: $98.50
CO: $71.50
BTN: $34.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10 Players)
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="red">MP3 raises to $14.00</font>, 5 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $44.50</font>, MP3 calls $30.50

Flop: ($91.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP3 bets all-in for $54.00</font>, Hero calls $54.00

Turn: ($199.

Villain is very tight. When he calls my PF reraise, I put him on KK, with AK/QQ a possibility. My image is semi-loose-PF, but winning 75% of showdowns. I would think he has to put me on AA, KK (only if he doesnt have KK), QQ or AK.

His allin on the flop after my check has to eliminate AK from this range, since he would be scared of AA/KK.

I've talked myself into saying I should have folded, but wanted to double-check.

[orange]

dont post results. you are being results oriented. you cannot c/f this flop after putting half your stack in pre. i would never c/f this flop ever.

[BustoPro]

Your analysis of AK in his range makes no sense. He's going to flat-call for so much preflop, then not shove when he hits? So that would mean it's a super-easy call.

If you rethink this and put him on [AA-KK] only preflop, or [AA-QQ] but there's no way in hell he'd ever shove his QQ with an overcard on the board, then it's a fold of course when the K hits.

But you better be real accurate with your reads if you are going to fold this, with so much money in the middle.

[JNash]

sorry about posting the result.

My reason for not check-calling instead of pushing on the flop was the chance he doesnt call with AK since he's so tight.

[JNash]

I like your thinking, but wouldn't he just shove PF w KK? That's what made me give some probability to AK.

But if it's strictly AA/KK, then of course it's a clear fold since the AA vs AA chance is so small.

[orange]

yeah, you'll see KK here sometimes. you might see AK here as well. its just something you have to do, payoff. if you were deeper or whatever you could make an argument for doing something else. but 100bbs, i'm AI.

also, as you move up in stakes or whatever, youll see that the aggression is increased and youll see a helluva lot more hands than just KK here shoving.

[JNash]

Very helpful. Your point about the depth seals it. I'll sleep better tonight -- thanks!

[BustoPro]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your thinking, but wouldn't he just shove PF w KK? That's what made me give some probability to AK.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's much more likely to shove with AK because 1.) he really doesn't want a call since he doesn't have a made hand so he wants to maximize fold equity and 2.) he wants to guarantee he sees all five cards. He's more likely to get cute with KK. Assuming he knows all this, of course.

[Raxor101]

Post flop analysis is pointless in this hand. Once you get half your stack in preflop with AA then if you never ever ever fold post flop - no matter what the flop is - you will rarely go wrong.