NBA Draft bust prediction thread

[kidcolin]

For the past 2 seasons Wilcox has put up a PER a couple points above league average. He's not a great defender. He's at worst a totally average power forward. He'd be a better 6th man than a starter.

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]

He's a below average starting power forward who puts up mediocre stats and plays average at best D on a team with a complete derth of frontcourt talent.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's actually an average starting power forward -- after about 12 starting PFs you basically run out of players who are even a fair bit better / worse than Wilcox, so no need for the hyperbole -- who is athletic and capable enough to play an up-tempo game and can slide over to center while simultaneously being a superb finisher and a very solid rebounder.

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, he's a 6th man. By comparison, he's worse than a guy like Andres Noccioni, and I don't know that anyone thinks he would be anything other than a below-average NBA starter, but is a very handy bench guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wilcox is an above-average big man in the NBA. That is quite inarguable any way you wish to twist it. Simply because he subjectively has the "potential" for more is no excuse to belittle him. It's striking how a player like Udonis Haslem is just as marginal as Wilcox is, but will never be criticized because he subjectively makes the "most" of his talent while Wilcox wastes some of his away.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

He's a below average starting power forward who puts up mediocre stats and plays average at best D on a team with a complete derth of frontcourt talent.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's actually an average starting power forward -- after about 12 starting PFs you basically run out of players who are even a fair bit better / worse than Wilcox, so no need for the hyperbole -- who is athletic and capable enough to play an up-tempo game and can slide over to center while simultaneously being a superb finisher and a very solid rebounder.

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, he's a 6th man. By comparison, he's worse than a guy like Andres Noccioni, and I don't know that anyone thinks he would be anything other than a below-average NBA starter, but is a very handy bench guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wilcox is an above-average big man in the NBA. That is quite inarguable any way you wish to twist it. Simply because he subjectively has the "potential" for more is no excuse to belittle him. It's striking how a player like Udonis Haslem is just as marginal as Wilcox is, but will never be criticized because he subjectively makes the "most" of his talent while Wilcox wastes some of his away.

[/ QUOTE ]


12 better PFs than him?

Guys I'd clearly have rather than him (in no particular order)
1. Al Jefferson
2. Chris Bosh
3. David Lee
4. Chris Bosh
5. Rasheed
6. Jermaine O'Neal
7. Dirk
8. Gasol
9. David West
10. Duncan
11. Nene
12. Garnett
13. Zach
14. Boozer
15. Harrington
16. Jamison
17. Brand
18. Amare/Marion (whichever is playing PF)
(19 + 20) Josh Smith and Gerald Wallace when they are forced to play PF which isn't that infrequently.

Guys who are close:
1. Tyrus Thomas (giving some credit for improvement)
2. Haslem
3. Gooden

Guys who are worse:
Sean May
Rahim
Marvin Williams
Random Orlando PF not named Howard
Villanueva (could be better if healthy)
Juwan Howard
Random Nets PF
Joe Smith

Saying he's a below average starting NBA PF seems pretty self-evident. And he's no Noccioni. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
About Wilcox

The year the Celtics signed Dan Dickau, he had just averaged 13.2 points and 5.2 assists for a terrible Hornets team.

He ended up behind Orien Greene on the depth chart for the C's the very next year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's some studs from last year who put up stats when they got quality minutes at the end of the year (last 30 days of the season):

Anthony Parker: 37mpg, 17ppg, 4r, 3a, good %'s
Walter Herrmann 36mpg, 18ppg, 6r, 1a great %'s
Amir Johnson 25mpg, 11ppg, 8r, 1a, good %'s
Tarence Kinsey 38mpg, 17ppg, 4r, 2a, good %'s
Jason Hart 34mpg, 10ppg, 4r, 5a, good %'s

Studs I tell you!

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]

2. Chris Bosh

[/ QUOTE ]

Played more C than PF.

[ QUOTE ]
3. David Lee

[/ QUOTE ]

ZOMG LESS THAN 30 MPG, BENCH PLAYER, MISSED 1/3 OF THE SEASON

[ QUOTE ]
4. Chris Bosh

[/ QUOTE ]

Listed twice.

[ QUOTE ]
5. Rasheed

[/ QUOTE ]

Also a center (43% of team's minutes at C, 17% at PF)

[ QUOTE ]
6. Jermaine O'Neal

[/ QUOTE ]

See above.

[ QUOTE ]
9. David West

[/ QUOTE ]

believe it or not, a barely above average player who plays the whole season > a very good player who misses a third of the season.

[ QUOTE ]
10. Duncan

[/ QUOTE ]

Center

[ QUOTE ]
11. Nene

[/ QUOTE ]

Equal parts PF and C.

[ QUOTE ]
15. Harrington

[/ QUOTE ]

He was beyond horrible on Indiana, was above average on GSW. That's basically = to Wilcox, if not worse.

[ QUOTE ]
18. Amare/Marion (whichever is playing PF)

[/ QUOTE ]

Amare played C, Marion logged more minutes at SF than PF.

[ QUOTE ]
(19 + 20) Josh Smith and Gerald Wallace when they are forced to play PF which isn't that infrequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol @ this

[ QUOTE ]
Saying he's a below average starting NBA PF seems pretty self-evident. And he's no Noccioni. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Incorrect, since you labeled many players who played more of another position than PF. If you want to do that, I'll simply label Wilcox as a C and let you keep your PFs, and Wilcox then becomes a well above-average C. Either way I win.

[Clarkmeister]

LOL at Rasheed being a center. Also at knocking David West for one injury. And if you take Bosh to center, then Bargnani also becomes >> Wilcox. And once the GSW trade went down, O'Neal played almost exclusively PF. You are way off. He's a bottom third starter and fundamentally a bench player. There are, what, three playoff teams that he'd start for?

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL at Rasheed being a center. Also at knocking David West for one injury. And if you take Bosh to center, then Bargnani also becomes >> Wilcox. And once the GSW trade went down, O'Neal played almost exclusively PF. You are way off. He's a bottom third starter and fundamentally a bench player. There are, what, three playoff teams that he'd start for?

[/ QUOTE ]

82games.com. Look it up yourself. A highly reputable website > your estimations. Sorry.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LOL at Rasheed being a center. Also at knocking David West for one injury. And if you take Bosh to center, then Bargnani also becomes >> Wilcox. And once the GSW trade went down, O'Neal played almost exclusively PF. You are way off. He's a bottom third starter and fundamentally a bench player. There are, what, three playoff teams that he'd start for?

[/ QUOTE ]

82games.com. Look it up yourself. A highly reputable website > your estimations. Sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basketball isn't baseball. Minutes = guaranteed stats, making the analysis at places like that extraordinarily overrated on this forum. He's a handy little role player. That's about the long and short of it.

[Oderec]

A little late into the thread but heres my thoughts...

I disagree with the Wright/Wilcox comparisons. If Wright got the ball within 5 feet of the rim last year it was an automatic 2 points. For the 10 or so UNC games I watched last year, he finished around the rim as good as anyone Ive seen within the last 5 years of college basketball(since I really started watching). That sounds like a huge overstatement but I really believe it. He also did it with skill, for example jump hooks, turn arounds, etc. where Wilcox relied more on his freakish athleticism to score when he was in college, IIRC. Wright is much more skilled aorund the basket and projects much better, IMO. That's the impression I got from watching Wright this year, could be wrong.

Oden compared to Olawakandi? Come on get real. Refer to his stuff of Brewer's dunk in the championship. That was sick, you don't see guys get dunks turned down that often even in the NBA, and those were two NBA level players. He is a little raw offensively, but he has showed upside, hes very young and has time to develop that.

I like Conley too. He was solid all year not just the tournament, he had a really solid year.

If I had to pick a few busts, Id pick Hibbert and NOAH. Maybe a few more Id have to think about it.

[EvanJC]

[ QUOTE ]
A little late into the thread but heres my thoughts...

I disagree with the Wright/Wilcox comparisons. If Wright got the ball within 5 feet of the rim last year it was an automatic 2 points. For the 10 or so UNC games I watched last year, he finished around the rim as good as anyone Ive seen within the last 5 years of college basketball(since I really started watching). That sounds like a huge overstatement but I really believe it. He also did it with skill, for example jump hooks, turn arounds, etc. where Wilcox relied more on his freakish athleticism to score when he was in college, IIRC. Wright is much more skilled aorund the basket and projects much better, IMO. That's the impression I got from watching Wright this year, could be wrong.

Oden compared to Olawakandi? Come on get real. Refer to his stuff of Brewer's dunk in the championship. That was sick, you don't see guys get dunks turned down that often even in the NBA, and those were two NBA level players. He is a little raw offensively, but he has showed upside, hes very young and has time to develop that.

I like Conley too. He was solid all year not just the tournament, he had a really solid year.

If I had to pick a few busts, Id pick Hibbert and NOAH. Maybe a few more Id have to think about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

hibbart is staying in skoolz