#1
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deep - even durrrr said call, fold, or push are all fine.
Pushing seemed like the only possible move at the time. I can't imagine calling being right and I really dislike folding.
I don't use a HUD but at the time my read was huge moron fish. Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) Hero (SB): $376.05 BB: $372.05 UTG: $285.30 MP: $307.10 CO: $391.45 BTN: $248.00 Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players) 2 folds, CO calls $2.00, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $16.00</font>, BB folds, CO calls $14.00 Flop: ($34) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $24.00</font>, CO calls $24.00 Turn: ($82) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $72.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $180.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero has 156 more behind to push with?</font> |
#2
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Re: deep - durrrr said call, fold, or push are all fine.
Shove, suck out, profit.
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#3
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Re: deep - even durrrr said call, fold, or push are all fine.
IMO its either a fold or a push, and given that he is a huge moron fish, I think he is more likely to play a flush like that, I get away from it!
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#4
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Re: deep - even durrrr said call, fold, or push are all fine.
gross. if your read is moron fish that probably means you have to assume he has the flush. But I push this all day.
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#5
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Re: deep - even durrrr said call, fold, or push are all fine.
Folding sucks. I actually like just calling. Given your read, he has the flush about 90% of the time here. You call getting 3:1, you fill up, you get the rest of his stack on the river 100% of the time. If he did have two pair, a set, semi bluff/bluff, whatever - then the river probably goes check check and you still take it down. I don't see a whole lot of reason to shove here unless you think that the flush doesn't make up such a huge chunk of his range.
Calling is definitely +EV. Folding is definitely -EV. Shoving is unclear. |
#6
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Re: deep - even durrrr said call, fold, or push are all fine.
[ QUOTE ]
Folding sucks. I actually like just calling. Given your read, he has the flush about 90% of the time here. You call getting 3:1, you fill up, you get the rest of his stack on the river 100% of the time. If he was did have two pair, a set, semi bluff/bluff, whatever - then the river probably goes check check and you still take it down. I don't see a whole lot of reason to shove here unless you think that the flush doesn't make up such a huge chunk of his range. [/ QUOTE ] i agree. the calling/pushing odds are nearly identical, so i'm in favor of a call |
#7
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Re: deep - even durrrr said call, fold, or push are all fine.
why are we gonna raising so much pf vs this fish if we arent gonna pot the flop? id push turn w/ your read
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#8
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Re: deep - even durrrr said call, fold, or push are all fine.
betting this turn without a plan is absolutely horrific and spewtard
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#9
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Re: deep - even durrrr said call, fold, or push are all fine.
i had a plan, doesnt mean it was played as well as possible.
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#10
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Re: deep - even durrrr said call, fold, or push are all fine.
Effective Stack = 375
Committed at turn = 112 If he has a flush, you need a boat to win, 18% at best, or quads 2% so 20% of the time you win $375. 80% of the time you lose $236, no splits. thats +75 -200 = -125 If on a flush draw he hits 16%, so +320 -65 = +255 Or nothing he folds 99.9% of the time, so you win +154 But lets use the numbers above, 90% he has it, and lets say 5% he folds and 5% he is drawing. so +15 +8 -110 = -87 Pushing is wrong. Calling if it goes check check then you lose 180 50%(bad flush) and win 334 50% -90 +150 = +60 if he bets and you fold you lose 180 -180 if you get it all in on the flop, only likely bet, we can say its now about 98%, he wont call with no cards to come and no hand, so you lose 235 98% and win 375 2% -230 +7 = -223 Calling is not profitable because you fold to another flush card, and he pushes with what he was winning with before. If you fold you are losing nothing more than was already put in, properly. I think you must fold. |
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