Interesting river spot

[Nielsio]

I hope you don't mind me posting a NL50 hand here.


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $50.00
BB: $35.55
UTG: $69.20
Hero (CO): $46.35
BTN: $76.85

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, Hero calls $1.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $3.00</font>, Hero calls $3.00

Turn: ($10.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $7.00</font>, Hero calls $7.00

River: ($24.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero ..


Villain is 24/15/3.40/149.

Could I consider turning my hand into a bluff on the river given that the flush hits? A reason not to do it is fearing a c/r from JJ. But I feel either I already have his 88/99 beat and I can get him off QQ+. win-win all the way, right?

[Nielsio]

I've been trying to open up my game and this seems like a spot where I can win more than my regular share of pots.

[Mossberg]

I don't think he's folding QQ+ ever. It's 50NL, and he's probably used to seeing people bet A7/86/TT here all day, so I'm pretty sure you get a snapcall from the hands in his range that you're trying to fold out.

[DocMartin]

I think I would be more willing to bluff this river if I was bluffing (with say.. 86 or something). You could very well have a value bet (you probably have him beat already) but you will often get called by hands that beat TT.

I don't think its a bad spot to push if you think his check means he fears the flush or has nothing. Is he the kind of guy to double-barrel overcards?

[Eagles]

I;d bet here for value

[the machine]

well if you think he has 88-99 then a bet isnt a win win because if you think hes fold QQ+ here (which hes not) then hes folding his 88-99. i personally play a lower variance style of play and probably check here.

[mertzo]

Checking behind here is OKis but i would bet alot for value, make it smallish.

[Unknown Soldier]

i dont get it, if you think you are behind now, why call river?

[Nielsio]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking behind here is OKis but i would bet alot for value, make it smallish.

[/ QUOTE ]



Uhh... the idea is that he is most likely c/c a reasonable bet with QQ+ because the flush just came in.

[Nielsio]

[ QUOTE ]
I;d bet here for value

[/ QUOTE ]


I have 150 hands on him, and he on me (assuming he's observant or uses stat software, and that's what I assume because I think he's a tag).

So what would I possibly get value from here? The rivercard is a J, the flush came in, it's a paired board on the flop. I am never floating him to the river on a paired board with a straight draw.