Two Pair corrupted, valuebet anyway?

[PBJaxx]

Looking at his stats, I really dont think he has a queen here. He probably would have reraised either the flop or the turn with TP. I think we are looking at either a busted draw (30%), a jack(25%), an under PP(20%), or he has a third 6(25%).

Assuming he folds a busted draw and you call a CR, here is a quick calculation (the percentages are obviously estimates).

EV=(.25(1) +.25(-2) +(.3)(0) +(.20)(1)) = -0.05BB

This result is definately within the margin of error present from my estimates.

All of that said, I don't think either decision is too bad, but I would probably check.

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at his stats, I really dont think he has a queen here. He probably would have reraised either the flop or the turn with TP. I think we are looking at either a busted draw (30%), a jack(25%), an under PP(20%), or he has a third 6(25%).

Assuming he folds a busted draw and you call a CR, here is a quick calculation (the percentages are obviously estimates).

EV=(.25(1) +.25(-2) +(.3)(0) +(.20)(1)) = -0.05BB

This result is definately within the margin of error present from my estimates.

All of that said, I don't think either decision is too bad, but I would probably check.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain raised flop, he didn't have the opportunity to put any more bets in. Calling a c/r is a no-no here. The only way we can bet the river for value is if we can fold to a c/r.

[PBJaxx]

Wow! my bad. Thats what i get for posting from my phone. Disregard my calculation. definate check. Thanks for the correction!

[Sandberg]

Check behind. More than half the time, the villain is going to have a Q here, IMO. Checking prevents the times you are being check raised and stops the villain from getting another bet in when you are behind which is enough that it is the better part of valor.

FTR, I am working on value betting more myself this month so I could be wrong about this.