TOP #22 - Reading Hands

[wallenborn]

The ability to read hands may be the most important weapon a poker player can have, because it allows you to play correctly according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker more often. The better you read your opponents' hands, the less likely you are to play your hand differently from the way you would play it if you could actually see what your opponents had.

Reading hands is both an art and a science. It is an art because you must know your opponents. You want to know how your opponents tend to play the various hands the might have. Will a particular opponent raise with strong hands in early position, or will he slowplay? How does he play his big hands from one round of betting to the next? How often does he bluff? The more you know about an opponent's general playing habits, the less difficulty you will have reading what he might be holding in a specific situation.

Weak players are difficult to read because there is little pattern to their play. Good players are easier to read because there is logic to their play. However, very tough players are more difficult to read because of their ability to disguise their hands.


Reading Hands on the Basis of Your opponents' Play and Exposed Cards

There are two universally applicable techniques for reading hands.

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] You analyze the meaning of your opponent's actions. In open games, you include the exposed cards in your analysis. You then work backwards through the hand, figuring out what possible holdings are consistent with the plays he has made throughout the hand.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] You start by putting your opponent on a variety of hands at the start of play. As the hand continues, you eliminate some of these hands based on his play and the cards he catches.


Using Mathematics to Read Hands

The second technique can be generalized using Bayes' Theorem. You start by putting your opponent on an ensemble of hands, that is, a variety of hands that he might have with given probabilities. If you know the relative probabilities for a particular action given a particular holding in a particular situation, you can refine the initial probabilities and arrive at a more precise picture of his hand.

This works even if you do it only approximately. If in hold'em an opponent raises preflop, and you think he will do this with Aces, Kings, or Ace-King only, then you can deduce that he odds of him having AK are 4-3.


Reading Hands in Multi-Way Pots

Another factor in reading hands and deciding ho to play your own is the number of players in the pot. Any time someone bets and someone else calls, you are in a more precarious position. Whether the bettor is bluffing or not, the second player must have something to call. The caller and the bettor cannot both be bluffing, so you must play on the assumption that you are up against at least one legitimate hand.

When there is a raiser ahead of you with the same standards as yours, you should have more than your minimum raising hand to call that raiser, because you have to figure your minimal raising hand is beat.




Older threads:

TOP #1 - Beyond Beginning Poker
TOP #2 - Mathematical Expectation and Hourly Rate
TOP #3 - The Fundamental Theorem of Poker
TOP #4 - The Ante Structure
TOP #5 - Pot Odds
TOP #6 - Effective Odds
TOP #7 - Implied Odds and Reverse Implied Odds
TOP #8 - The Value of Deception
TOP #9 - Win the Big Pots Right Away
TOP #10 - The Free Card
TOP #11 - The Semi-Bluff
TOP #12 - Defense Against the Semi-Bluff
TOP #13 - Raising
TOP #14 - Check-Raising
TOP #15 - Slowplaying
TOP #16 - Loose and Tight Play
TOP #17 - Position
TOP #18 - Bluffing
TOP #19 - Game Theory And Bluffing
TOP #20 - Inducing and Stopping Bluffs
TOP #21 - Heads-Up On The End