Help me with this hand early in Event 25

[jfletcher]

[ QUOTE ]
um are u really suggesting a different line when betting got all of the money in with u as a 70% fav? bbv isn't too far away.

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No. He was the big favorite on the turn, when the second 5 came. We wouldn't be having this discussion if I'd gotten my money in good.

[djk123]

o ya woops. anyways still nothing u cud do about it. no way u can put him on a 5. betting turn is best regardless.

[jfletcher]

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o ya woops. anyways still nothing u cud do about it. no way u can put him on a 5. betting turn is best regardless.

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What about betting 1000 and folding to a CR, leaving you with 1600 and blinds at 50-100? Betting 1000 is still more than half the pot, and gives him the wrong odds for any draw he's got.

[djk123]

if he's playing j5 to a raise, i doubt he only has hands that beat us when he c/r turn.

[jfletcher]

Well, it was an interesting hand anyway.

It was particularly heartbreaking considering what happened to me in the 6th hand of the event the next day...

Two limpers and I raise to 250 in the SB with AA. CO calls. 600 in the pot. K64 rainbow flop. I bet 300. CO calls. Pot 1100. Turn 5. I bet 600. CO raises to 1600. I push (only 1000 more) and he shows 54. No help for me on the river and I'm out in less than one orbit.

That time I think I should have folded to his turn CR.

[NoahL]

stack sizes are so screwed here, clearly any hand he pushes is beating him, but I really don't see any other way to play but bet=call the all in.


I hate poker.

[PhatPots]

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To the guys who said all-in, I take it then you are 100 percent certain he's on a straight or flush draw?

You wanna risk your whole tourney this early on a one-pair hand?

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This is very read dependant. More background information is needed on the villain. He could have a lot of things.

Do you think he slowplays a bigger pair than you? Do you think he he might think 88-99 is good?

Could he have 76s or 34s?

You really only have 3 options at this point
1. Shove
2. Bet with the intention of calling a shove
3. Check and call a bet on a non-club river.

[jfletcher]

I said my only read on villain was that he was playing a lot of pots, but I hadn't seen any of his hands yet.

I've thought about it some more and I think that checking makes things too complicated on the river.

What gives you the easiest decision? Betting 1000 on the turn and folding to a push. That leaves me with 1600 and blinds at 50-100. Not great, but not dead.

I've said this before, and I know some of you disagree with me, but I really find it difficult to buy that he would push OTT as a bluff on the turn, after I've shown strength on all three streets. He'd have to believe that I was betting 1000 on the turn with AK unimproved. If he's paid any attention to me over the first 90 minutes (tight, not gone to a showdown), he can't think that. He's got to put me on AA-88, at worst.

Besides, I've only got 1600 left after my bet, so he's got to think a bluff is even more risky. He's got me outchipped, but not by a lot. He's going to cripple himself if he loses.

If the guy is so ballsy that he's going to make that play with a draw or with 99 or 88, I just have to tip my cap to him and move on. The only players that make that move are either very bad or very good, and until proven otherwise I've got to assume most players in this tourney fall somewhere in between.