$100nl - AA Weird River Spot

cwar · #1 06-17-2007, 08:25 PM

First two orbits at the table no previous stats on villain, he has open raised twice including the hand before where I 3-bet him and he folded.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $111.35
CO: $240.90
Hero: $103.50
SB: $100
BB: $100

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG raises to $3.5, CO folds, Hero raises to $12, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($25.5, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $15, UTG calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($55.5, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $26, UTG calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($107.5, 2 players)
UTG is all-in $58.35, Hero ?

JeffOkinawa · #2 06-17-2007, 08:39 PM

I probably fold this absent information about my opponent.

Pretty much any two broadway cards have you, and I don't see much you can beat -- at least not one that would call a reraise preflop. This seems like either a flopped set that's been slowplayed or two big cards that have made two pair (or even a straight with A10, which I think is a remote possibility).

You can beat AK, AQ and AJ, but that's about it, and are these hands really going to check-call all the way down and then lead river? Q-10 for a busted OESD is the only other hand I can come up with.

cwar · #3 06-17-2007, 08:53 PM

We dont need to be good that often tho, 25% is the breakeven point here, what do you think about the turn 1/2 instead of a standard 2/3?

keikiwai · #4 06-17-2007, 08:58 PM

how can you possibly fold given pot odds?

your bet sizing got you into this awkward spot, size your bets so you push the turn

$13.5 pf

flop pot is - $28.5 you have $90 left

bet $22 on the flop

turn pot is $72.50 you have $68 left

push turn

(you can also bet a little less on the flop, and a little less on the turn, and have a few bucks left on the river that you put in no matter what, but i think pushing turn is best)

Split Suit · #5 06-17-2007, 09:01 PM

I generally use 2/3 pot as a cbet in 3-bet pots (gives me a nice price on c-bets with hands like 76, 22, or A3s) I see nothing wrong with betting 15 on the flop, turn size is debatable though. Saying there is a problem with flop bet is pretty results oriented IMO villain likely has very few outs keeping him around is good.

keikiwai · #6 06-17-2007, 09:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Saying there is a problem with flop bet is pretty results oriented IMO villain likely has very few outs keeping him around is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

the problem with the hand is the size of stacks on the river, so it's a combo problem of pf, flop, and turn bet sizes

i have no problem w/ flop bet size in isolation

Split Suit · #7 06-17-2007, 10:09 PM

My point is without a K or Q river we are perfect fine here vs his range so whats wrong with giving him better odds to draw to 2-5 outs vs the hands we beat?

Nepthu · #8 06-17-2007, 10:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
We dont need to be good that often tho, 25% is the breakeven point here, what do you think about the turn 1/2 instead of a standard 2/3?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the type of flop that hit his hand. So I don't really think you need to bet smaller. I would think about betting bigger for value. But if you wanted to suck him in with 1/2 pot bet on the turn and the rest on the river, than I get your idea.

Split Suit · #9 06-17-2007, 11:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We dont need to be good that often tho, 25% is the breakeven point here, what do you think about the turn 1/2 instead of a standard 2/3?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the type of flop that hit his hand. So I don't really think you need to bet smaller. I would think about betting bigger for value. But if you wanted to suck him in with 1/2 pot bet on the turn and the rest on the river, than I get your idea.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think thats clearly what he was doing but obviously one of the worst 5 cards rolled off.

Vegas_VIP · #10 06-17-2007, 11:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
how can you possibly fold given pot odds?

your bet sizing got you into this awkward spot, size your bets so you push the turn

$13.5 pf

flop pot is - $28.5 you have $90 left

bet $22 on the flop

turn pot is $72.50 you have $68 left

push turn

(you can also bet a little less on the flop, and a little less on the turn, and have a few bucks left on the river that you put in no matter what, but i think pushing turn is best)

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree