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#1
06-17-2007, 01:40 PM
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88 on the bubble ($11 FTP)
I figure there's lots of FE here, is this a push or a fold?
Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Tournament Blinds: t80/t160 4 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: t3280 Button: t3625 SB: t3020 Hero: t3575 Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to t320</font>, SB folds, Hero? 
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#4
06-17-2007, 04:17 PM
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Re: 88 on the bubble ($11 FTP)
probably call then see what flops. i dont think we are really lookin for set value as much as we are lookin for a nice flop. i dont think stacks are deep enough for set value but im not 100%. does anyone know the correct stack sizes to get full set value based on how often it hits because im not sure
but i think we hit a set 1 in every 7 times and we have to call 2 BB to play here so stacks would have to be 15 BB or bigger. if im right we barely have the right odds but they are there. we just gotta flop
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#5
06-17-2007, 04:44 PM
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Re: 88 on the bubble ($11 FTP)
Lot's of fold equity? I read this as a) the button has been stealing a lot or b) he's tight enough to fold or c) you scare everyone. Based on stack sizes, I'd guess it's not (c). Based on the tourney ($11) and the fact that it is down to 4 so fast (don't play at FT, but I guess 80/160 blinds gives me the sense that is playing fast) I'd guess it's not (b).
A "nice" flop for 8's is no overcards, and won't come very often. I'd suggest that he's going to bet out the flop if you don't. What are you going to bet the flop on? Are you going to check/raise when he does? I don't think you play for a set, but the hand is going to be decided on the flop. Feel comfortable running 8s in a race? Call. Think he's going to try to take it on the flop, and don't have the guts to play it to the river? Fold.
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#7
06-17-2007, 06:31 PM
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Re: 88 on the bubble ($11 FTP)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I flat call and re-evaluate flop. [/ QUOTE ] Ya, then I'd probably make a probe bets on most flops with Q or J high. [/ QUOTE ] nope, probe bet sucks, at least to me...so let's say, you make a probe bet, villain calls, raises, turn doesn't bring anything then what? If flop is scarry, with no set for me, I check - if raised, i fold.
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#8
06-17-2007, 06:58 PM
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Re: 88 on the bubble ($11 FTP)
[ QUOTE ]
but i think we hit a set 1 in every 7 times and we have to call 2 BB to play here so stacks would have to be 15 BB or bigger. if im right we barely have the right odds but they are there. we just gotta flop [/ QUOTE ] It's actually only 1BB that needs to be called and in that case you almost certainly have odds to try to hit a set.
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