1.20$ Pokerstars: Nice set on the bubble - right play?

[darks]

We were on the bubble, villain is agressive player. Was my play ok here?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Hero (t5345)
Button (t1285)
SB (t6295)
BB (t575)

Preflop: Hero is in CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero raises to t450</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, SB calls t375, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Flop: (t1050) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t300</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t600</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t4895 (All-in)</font>, SB calls t4295

[greggg230]

I hate it on the bubble, but you definitely can't fold and you definitely can't just call.

A few points:

(1) You have to bet more initially. You're betting less than a third of the pot on a flop which has a zillion draws on it. I would bet pot here, or at least 3/4th pot: t850-t1000 is nice. With you weak bet, you're going to induce bluff raises a lot. That'd be fine on a board like T 2 5 rainbow, but you want to know where you are here.

(2) The raise sucks, but you can't fold or call. As played, however, your push is too much of a raise; you're pricing in only hands that have you beat. I would re-raise to about t2000 or t2500.

(3) If you bet what I said, though, and get min-raised, then you do have to push.

[empyrium]

yes, well played.
you are either ahead or have lots of outs. only against JJ you are dead.
but if this wasnt a 1.20$ and if villain was a decent player i might just call the raise and see what the turn brings.

why is calling no option here?
if you reraise and he pushes you know you are beaten, though you cant fold this anymore.

[normalcy]

i completely agree with greggg's point #1. the flop bet was way too little.

however, i disagree with him on point #2. i would just call the raise. 300 more to see if you hit the boat or quads. if you miss, there is a good chance that villian will check behind if he was on a draw that missed (very draw heavy board)... 300 chips is not going to hurt you relative to the two short stacks.. however, you cannot call an all in here on this extremely dangerous board. try to get to a showdown cheap or at least see cards cheaply. correct me if my logic is flawed. thanks guys.

can anyone run an ICM on this to see?

[greggg230]

You can't just call here. What do you when a Q, 8, or heart comes up on the board? That's going to happen a lot, and you're giving it to him for free. If it's an 8 or a Q, you're done with the hand.

The only hands you don't mind giving free cards are 99 and KQ; you can assume he's not playing Q8 or 78, unless he's a really terrible player. If he has KQ, and the board doesn't pair, you're now a 4:1 underdog; on the flop, you were only 2:1.

Get that money in as soon as you can. You're way, way ahead of his range.

Against this range: QQ-JJ,99,KJs+,QJs,JTs,KJo+,QJo,JTo you have 61.3% of the equity. I think his range is much wider, given that this is a $1.20.

[ QUOTE ]
if villain is a decent player i dont think he would make action on this board unless he got us beaten

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a $1.20, so the assumption that he is a decent player isn't a good one.

However, you wouldn't raise with an overpair, two pair, set of 9's, straight/flush draw with overcards here?

[empyrium]

basicly i agree with you, but if villain is a decent player i dont think he would make action on this board unless he got us beaten. dont you think he would just call a draw rather than raising it btw?

[normalcy]

this is a very interesting problem to me. do you guys mind if i post it (just the hand details, not the names) in another forum that i belong to, to get more thoughts on it?

i don't know the rules yet.. is that ok?

[mortimo]

I raise t375 preflop
t800 on the flop..Push, as played

He had KQ, right?

[darks]

KK, and the turn came Q [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[mortimo]

Tough luck..Anyway, NH