Handicap this bet for me (NFL Super Bowl / NE Patriots and Randy Moss)

[sabes]

Short background - I live in MN and my uncle and I have always disagreed on Randy Moss' ability to help a team. My uncle is a big hater and says any team with Moss on it will never win a Super Bowl, I say that's easy to say when Moss has only played on the Vikes and Raiders ever and he could definitely help the right team with a decent QB (Indy, New England, etc), blah blah. So now that he's playing for the Pats, we're looking to set up some sort of bet for what are the odds that Moss will win a Super Bowl.

I think Moss will either win a Super Bowl or get shipped out of NE in 3 years or less, so I'm thinking about offering my uncle a bet that would cover the next 3 seasons. I think I could get my uncle to agree to a much more generous line with a bet that covers 3 seasons rather than until Moss retires, as the time period is definite so someone will get paid by then for sure, and 3 seasons sounds a lot shorter than "potentially 8-10 years" where I think Moss' best chance to win a SB is in the next 3 years anyways.

So essentially what I'm trying to evaluate is Moss' chances of winning a SB
- in the next 3 years,
- in the next 5 years, and
- before he retires

and try to come up with a good line to offer my uncle. We will probably bet in the neighborhood of $1k-5k so it's not a huge bet, but still not insignificant and I'd like to get the better end of this deal if I could.

[sabes]

Ok maybe this will make things simpler. The easiest way to handicap this bet would be to determine the chance of New England winning the SB in any year over the next 3 years.

A fair bet would have my uncle giving odds to me (i.e. chances of Moss winning a SB in the next 3 years are less than 50%). For example, if the average chance of New England winning the SB in any of the next 3 years is say 15%, then the odds of them not winning in any of the next 3 years are .85*.85*.85=.614125. This number is needed because NE needs to not win the SB in each of the next 3 years for my uncle to win. So a fair bet would then be X(.385875):Y(.614125). Where Y=1, then X=1.5915. Fair odds would then be 1.5915:1 which is approximately 8:5 or +160 for NE (Moss) to win a SB in the next 3 years. Am I right or is this some random faulty logic?

So..

[Bishop22]

Pretty big assumption that Moss will be with NE for three years. He might be out on his ass the first time he complains about not getting the ball. Without doing the math I think I bet a ton on your uncle's side at that price.

[rjp]

I'd gladly lay -160, and I don't have to do any math!

[sabes]

What kind of odds would people lay for the next 3 years then, and then for the next year? A lot of people I've talked to think Moss won't even stick around for 3 years which would make a bet for that duration worse. Even though I don't necessarily agree with that assessment, it is something to consider that would make a 1 year deal better in that regard.

[crockpot]

why is 15% winning when tradesports and wsex both have them higher than 15% to win the 08 super bowl alone?

i agree that it's totally unreasonable to assume moss will stay in new england for three years.

[sabes]

Ok well the more I think about it, the more a 1-year bet makes sense given that there is a decent chance Moss doesn't stay in NE for 3 years. So what kind of odds would be good for taking NE as Super Bowl champs this year?

I've seen a lot of sportsbooks offering +200 (uke) and +300, but on Matchbook there's offers for +410 and +350 as well. I'm thinking +450 might be a little better than breakeven and slightly +EV, what do y'all think?

Edit: Also Ladbrokes.com is offering 5/1.