Dicussion on betting missed draws

[wpr101]

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lead the flopppppppppppp. it gives you so many more options in spots like this.

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What if we get raised? 3b allin?

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3b or fold depending on how aggressive they are vs leads.

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Yeah true. Sometimes when I'm against fish I'll raise their lead in with nothing because they fold often. But if the fish knew then it would be correct for them to play draws fast against me like that.

[FBP]

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play it same way u would tp

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why? if i have tp i'm leading the river because i expect to get called by a ton of hands. why would i want to make a bluff when i expect to get called a lot? just give up, check fold and move on to the next hand. if you want to combat for pot, come up with something more creative than checking the flop and turn

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This is wrong, you can play top pair and busted draw the same way and be profitable on all of your bets wether value bet or bluffs. And I think this kind of spot illustrate pretty well a spot where this is likely to be true.
The flaw in your logic is not thinking percentage, so you need to remember, although he might call with "lots of hands" this does NOT mean you will get called a lot (percentage wise). For exemple imagine if his check behind range is like King hi or worse and middle pair.



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why are we imagining this? seriously, i don't get it.

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Cause there are a bunch of King high or worse hands compared to middle pair, yet you still get called by a lot of crap, namely all the middle pair.

I admit the range i chose may not be great to illustrate the idea.

Edit: Change his range to : middle paire or worse, and his calling range to bottom pair or better.
This should make more sense.

[tommo]

can you check raise bluff?

[wpr101]

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can you check raise bluff?

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Yea you could. But often that line doesn't look that strong because your betting pattern doesn't make sense for a large hand. Sometimes it's an interesting line to take with a big hand... personally I don't like bluffing that way unless I have good reads.

[MATT111]

I would have made my decision to bluff when I had c/ced the flop.
Which means: when I c/c a flop with a decent draw I usually do so on boards on which villain can put me on a made hand as well. Like K76r.

[obiedman]

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play it same way u would tp

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why? if i have tp i'm leading the river because i expect to get called by a ton of hands. why would i want to make a bluff when i expect to get called a lot? just give up, check fold and move on to the next hand. if you want to combat for pot, come up with something more creative than checking the flop and turn

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This is wrong, you can play top pair and busted draw the same way and be profitable on all of your bets wether value bet or bluffs. And I think this kind of spot illustrate pretty well a spot where this is likely to be true.
The flaw in your logic is not thinking percentage, so you need to remember, although he might call with "lots of hands" this does NOT mean you will get called a lot (percentage wise). For exemple imagine if his check behind range is like King hi or worse and middle pair.



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why are we imagining this? seriously, i don't get it.

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Cause there are a bunch of King high or worse hands compared to middle pair, yet you still get called by a lot of crap, namely all the middle pair.

I admit the range i chose may not be great to illustrate the idea.

Edit: Change his range to : middle paire or worse, and his calling range to bottom pair or better.
This should make more sense.

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yea it does, thanks. i just didn't see what point you were trying to make with that, but now i see what you were getting at.

in this case, our betting frequency should depend on the showdown value of our bluff, should it not? obviously if we call with T9s our hand has little showdown value and we're beaten by a lot of his check-behind range. However, something like Axs or, in some cases Kxs, we have a little bit more showdown value against his range, so we can check more often because we're happier with him checking behind. am i way off?

[Teh1337zor]

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can you check raise bluff?

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Yea you could. But often that line doesn't look that strong because your betting pattern doesn't make sense for a large hand. Sometimes it's an interesting line to take with a big hand... personally I don't like bluffing that way unless I have good reads.

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also if they call your flop bet your in a tough spot on the turn when you miss, oop with a missed draw so you hve to decide to slow down or fire again

[ChiefJustis]

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To address the OP's question of "What texture flops are you going to try to steal? Would you be more prone to steal versus a nit/TAG/LAG?".

I think you are thinking along the wrong lines here, obviously these variables play some role in the decision to bluff the river, however I do no believe they are the most important. The villians perception of your play to this point and your overall table image should be your largest concern. If you have been playing nice and tight to this point your line may look like a big hand trying to get tricky. I would bluff this situation a good amount as a tight player because your image will get you the needed FE to make it profitable long run. OBV don't bluff an Ace river or into a known calling station.

J

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I respectfully disagree. It's going to depend a lot more on what the board is and his range as opposed to our image.

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Based on the villians line where he checks behind the turn I am assuming he has a hand where he c-bets and shuts down. Typically these hands are the type that would fold the river to a good bluff, and they are also the type that we have very little showdown value against, i.e. A high or a pair lower than the board. Given these hands and factoring in my statement earlier that bluffing an A river is a no go, I think that the river and the opponents tendancies are not that important. Getting inside his head he should be thinking only that he can beat a bluff, soon after he goes back to his history with you and your image to determine if this bluff is possible.

I think what I am saying (not to good at conveying my thoughts for some reason in this situation) is that with a line this transparent the only better hands you will get your opponent to lay down are marginally better hands. I think you get called fairly often with even bottom pair. In this case where you are going to get looked up frequently I think you need to have a very tight image to make this profitable long term.

J