Stealing from the Big Blind

[tewall]

This seems to be very profitable to me. Say the blinds are at 50/100, and I've folded several dozen hands, and am down to 1300 or so, and a couple of people limp, so there's 350 or so in the pot. The chances are quite a bit less than if a person hadn't acted that they will have a calling hand if I shove.

Admittedly, some people will trap with a big hand, hoping someone will raise, but most people with a top 10 hand will raise, so if a person limps, they are less likely to call than normal, especially if they are not the first limper.

So doing some ICM calculations, it seems profitable to go all-in with any two cards, given some reasonable assumptions. My "reasonable" assumptions are that I'm 50% less likely to be called then normal (that is, the fact that people have limped make it 50% less likely that the limpers will have a top range hand, than if they had not limped) and that I won't be called by a hand less than top 10% (hands like 77, AJo, KQs; this might be too tight a guess, but, while there have been some weak calls, usually when I'm called here, I'm shown a hand).

In the ICM calculations I've done, this is +EV, just from the fold equity. Of course, the good thing about being in the Big Blind is that everyone has acted, so unless someone is trapping with a big hand (unlikely, except for the first limper, who might be trapping), everyone has declared they don't really like their hand.

This play has been working very well for me, although I have a very small sample size. I'm wondering if others have played around with this, and what parameters or assumptions are used in trying to determine the profitability and what hands to push with. So far I've just been trying it with hands that are better than average, so they have some showdown value. I'm not sure that's necessary, especially if this is the first pot I'm playing. Admittedly, some people won't notice or care (but some will).

Ok, the other thing that stikes me is that this play could work well in the small blind as well. The Big Blind could wake up with a hand, so that makes two people to worry about (the first limper, and the big blind). But, on the other hand, there's more dead money to go after, to counterbalance that a bit. Also the small blind is not usually suspected of making moves.

This seems to me to be quite a bit better than a simple resteal. If someone is raising, surely the chance that they have a real hand is better than someone among a couple of limpers having a real hand, and there's the same amount of money at stake.

Any thoughts appreciated.

(I should mention that I play low limit SNG's)

[greggg230]

It's good to do occasionally, but I wouldn't do it with ATC.

Doing it too much is exploitable, too.

Also, you'll sometimes get called by small PPs.

[tewall]

So far I've just done it with better than average hands, so getting called by a small PP would be fine. My intuition tells me it would be profitable with ATC, given that this is your first move at a pot. Of course, once you've made the move, people will be more likely to call, so that would need to be taken into account.

[PattdownManiac]

I'm assuming you are playing at a buyin low enough that you don't play with the same people enough for them to catch on that you always do this. If that is the case, the players in the lower buyin are bad enough to frequently call.

[tewall]

You do get some weird calls, but usually it's folded around.

[Guthrie]

It seems to be almost routine in many of my games. If I limp a pp after one or two limpers, everybody behind me feels obligated to limp, then the BB shoves every single time. He gets called quite often.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems to be almost routine in many of my games. If I limp a pp after one or two limpers, everybody behind me feels obligated to limp, then the BB shoves every single time. He gets called quite often.

[/ QUOTE ]

And he gets called by hands like 22. QJs or A4o. Urgh when it happens to me.

[tewall]

I've tried it with 2 or 3 limpers. If you get too many limpers, then there are good pot odds to call, so you'd want a good hand in this case, since there's a pretty good chance you'll get called. But if the pot is about 35% of your stack, then the pot odds aren't so good for someone to call, but it still builds your stack up quite a bit, but the pot doesn't look so big that you'd want to risk your stack for it, without a big hand.

Another thing about the play is that you might get called by a smaller stack, in which case only a portion of your stack is at risk, but you still have a chance of picking up the dead money.

[Kevin8423]

Doing this with ATC is bad.

[simonpoker]

seems useful I'm doing it all the with hands like KQo, KJs, 88+ should I do it with more hands?BTW slightly off topic but how many blinds should I have to simply steal blinds from LP?