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Old 06-15-2007, 02:42 PM
rkidwell rkidwell is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 102
Default Re: Home STT - QQ on the button

Against a trappy villain, what do you think villain would have to smooth call your pre-flop raise and then smooth call your bet on the flop with on this pretty dry board? No likely draws here, so the only hand you are really worried about is a set (the two pair hands of J5, J2 and 52 seem very unlikely unless villain is a complete donk). Would villain play it like this with JJ, 55 or 22? I would probably play JJ the way villain has played it by limping from UTG, calling your pre-flop raise, checking top set on the flop and smooth calling your flop bet. Seems villain might fold 55 or 22 here to your pre-flop raise (especially if you had raised bit more pre-flop). Villain also might play top pair with a decent kicker (AJ, KJ) or maybe just a lower pocket pair (TT, 99) this way too thinking that you are making a standard c-bet with a hand like AK or AQ. I assume that villain would not limp AA or KK from UTG and if so villain would probably toss out a raise by now. There aren’t any likely straight draws or flush draws here with a J52 rainbow board.

Against a trappy villain, I'm concerned with his limp-call/check-call/check line but, as played, I'm still tossing out a bet for value on the turn with our overpair, maybe around t1200 to t1500. If villain still smooth calls a turn bet, then I hope he checks the river so I could check behind. If villain had check-called the whole way and then bets on the river, I’d be very suspicious and would think about a fold even though by this point we have invested 2/3rds of our stack in this pot (t500 pre-flop, t900 on flop and a suggested t1200 to t1500 on turn), leaving us about a t1800 stack left, about 18 big blinds so we aren’t quite desperate yet.

As played, villain’s river bet here could be anything, especially since you said he's fully capable of bluffing the river if he reads you as weak. I like raising more pre-flop, betting more on the flop and betting the turn and then trying to put him on a hand.
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