Interesting flop spot, 3/6

[Josh.]

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then why is betting a mistake... we are giving villain the opportunity to put money in with the worst of it, I dont care if he ends up getting odds to call ai w/ AA, we're still profiting from this situation.


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just because you are ahead of someone's entire range doesn't mean you should bet. if 51% of his hands have 0% equity and 49% have 100% equity, then we're ahead of his range but betting would be pretty stupid

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no [censored]

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next time, if you know something is true, don't write the opposite

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oh please...

we have 60% equity vs 50% of his range and 45% equity vs the other 50%, he will play all hands the same. calculate my EV please?

no you say?

oh wait thats right because my example doesn't prove anything, neither does yours

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your logical thought process: good equity ---> get money in

this is wrong because it's the distribution that matters, not the overall equity. that is what my example proved

[xorbie]

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I think by betting we make it difficult on JJ, 99, A10 to put it in here

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i just cant imagine those hands cchecking because they want to c/f.

[jkkkk]

Hey josh, thats not my logic at all, if I can envision a better way to get my money in on a later street where villain is likely to make a mistake, I will always take that option.

However since villain is 'regular TAG' and we have no history here, I don't see which street we are going to consistently be taking advantage of his range, besides the flop.

If you disagree please suggest a better line.

[Josh.]

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Hey josh, thats not my logic at all, if I can envision a better way to get my money in on a later street where villain is likely to make a mistake, I will always take that option.

However since villain is 'regular TAG' and we have no history here, I don't see which street we are going to consistently be taking advantage of his range, besides the flop.

If you disagree please suggest a better line.

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there are 2 bets left. our 8s are a 0-bet hand. our draws are a 2-bet hand. by checking the flop, you let yourself put in 0 or 1 bets vs AA when you have a pair of 8s unimproved, NEVER TWO. and you still almost always get 2 bets in when you make your hand

[jkkkk]

can't disagree with that, vs AA your line is the most profitable (assuming 0 fold equity), but his range is not confined to just AA.

[Josh.]

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can't disagree with that, vs AA your line is the most profitable (assuming 0 fold equity), but his range is not confined to just AA.

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vs what part of his range is betting better? MAYBE vs JJ/AT/99, but we even have implied odds vs those hands, so it's close. and i betting once is probably the worst line vs these hands. it's either shove, or bet and follow through on the turn (which i'm not sure how i feel about)

AK is close. he has 2-3 outs that cost him his stack. if he hits a non-spade A or K, we won't pay unless it's to draw, where we have implied odds. when he turns a jack, we still have implied odds on the flush, and i don't think it's a stretch to say we should be able to fold by the river. so i'd say AK is pretty close between checking and betting.

[LB_001]

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Hey josh, thats not my logic at all, if I can envision a better way to get my money in on a later street where villain is likely to make a mistake, I will always take that option.

However since villain is 'regular TAG' and we have no history here, I don't see which street we are going to consistently be taking advantage of his range, besides the flop.

If you disagree please suggest a better line.

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there are 2 bets left. our 8s are a 0-bet hand. our draws are a 2-bet hand. by checking the flop, you let yourself put in 0 or 1 bets vs AA when you have a pair of 8s unimproved, NEVER TWO. and you still almost always get 2 bets in when you make your hand

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If I knew he had AA I think I would bet the flop for sure, if he C/R all in that's alright, we're 60/40, if he just calls and checks (unlikely probably but he might with some other hands in his range) then we have 1 bet left and can check behind if we miss and fold river if we miss again. If we hit our straight or two pair on that board after checking the flop, good luck getting 2 bets out of him. Even hitting a flush which is best case (other than another 8) on the turn, he might find a way to fold the river, and 50% of the time he'll have a redraw to a higher flush.

[jkkkk]

well that question is very hard to answer without a postflop read, hes been defending a lot so his range is fairly big, he might even cr the flop with a wide range, its hard to tell what he'll do w/ AQ, AJ etc etc.

all I know is that by betting the flop we are offering villain an opportunity to make a mistake with some of his lesser hands as well. not extracting the most out of AA should hardly be the deciding factor in whether we bet or not imo.

[Josh.]

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Hey josh, thats not my logic at all, if I can envision a better way to get my money in on a later street where villain is likely to make a mistake, I will always take that option.

However since villain is 'regular TAG' and we have no history here, I don't see which street we are going to consistently be taking advantage of his range, besides the flop.

If you disagree please suggest a better line.

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there are 2 bets left. our 8s are a 0-bet hand. our draws are a 2-bet hand. by checking the flop, you let yourself put in 0 or 1 bets vs AA when you have a pair of 8s unimproved, NEVER TWO. and you still almost always get 2 bets in when you make your hand

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If I knew he had AA I think I would bet the flop for sure, if he C/R all in that's alright, we're 60/40, if he just calls and checks (unlikely probably but he might with some other hands in his range) then we have 1 bet left and can check behind if we miss and fold river if we miss again. If we hit our straight or two pair on that board after checking the flop, good luck getting 2 bets out of him.

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saving the last bet 2/3 (frequency that given we miss turn, we hit river) of the time is more important than gaining an extra bet 1/4 (frequency that we hit turn or river) of the time

[Josh.]

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well that question is very hard to answer without a postflop read, hes been defending a lot so his range is fairly big, he might even cr the flop with a wide range, its hard to tell what he'll do w/ AQ, AJ etc etc.

all I know is that by betting the flop we are offering villain an opportunity to make a mistake with some of his lesser hands as well. not extracting the most out of AA should hardly be the deciding factor in whether we bet or not imo.

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what hand is he making a mistake calling/raising with?


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.182% 42.73% 00.45% 3807 40.50 { ATo }
Hand 1: 56.818% 56.36% 00.45% 5022 40.50 { 9s8s }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.975% 54.75% 00.23% 3252 13.50 { JJ }
Hand 1: 45.025% 44.80% 00.23% 2661 13.50 { 9s8s }


if he knew that we 100% wanted to get the money in, then he'd need 43.3% equity to do shove