an interesting (?) river situation

[Galwegian]

I know that this forum is not a strategy forum for holdem but I tried posting this in MTT strat and got little response and I think the reason is that the analysis is fairly theoretical. I think that this hand highlights an interesting situation on the river that I haven't seen analysed elsewhere. Basically, how do you play when you have 3rd/4th nuts but there are a lot of hands that you are tied with?

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is tricky/trappy LAG. He's a good LAG and he knows that I'm a TAG.

Live NLHE tourney - $150 buyin, blinds are 25/50, 10 players.

stacks
UTG (villain) - 8000
MP3 (hero) - 7000

preflop
Dealt to hero - A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG calls 50, 3 folds, hero raises to 150, 4 folds, UTG calls

pot = 375

flop
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG checks, hero bets 300, UTG calls

pot = 975

turn
[A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG checks, hero bets 500, UTG calls

pot = 1975

river
[A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG checks, hero ????

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that from a game theoretic point of view, this decision is quite interesting (e.g. assume that your opponent plays optimally). Most people that I have asked think that I should value bet, I think a check is the right play. Thoughts?

[ricksonbyarmbar]

this is an interesting situation you have here, for one, you seem to have a good idea of how your oppenant plays, moreover you know he knows how you play. If you are a TAG and he does perceive you as this, then he probobly figures you wouldnt be raising preflop+ bet that flop+ bet the turn without an A in you hand.

Him being "tricky" may mean he has Limped UTG with AA KK QQ JJ AKs now as far as the flop goes you have out flopped his KK QQ JJ, and you tie AK and AA has you beat However some players dont throw JJ-KK away easily when they have slowplayed it because they figure thiere hand is so disguised, so he may be stuborn and still be holding those big pairs.

If he is a LAG he probobly would of raised the flop or turn with an ace to see where he is at, or mabey limp re-raised preflop

the fact that the board has 2 aces on it, makes it less likely you have an ace and he may make a crying call on the river with a big pair, so I would say value bet
Hope this was some sort of help.

[btmagnetw]

what?

[cjl49]

is this a joke? first of all seeing that you are both sitting on 150BB stacks and you raised 3x, he could literally have anything. Second, wtf? Third, you have the nuts. you don't care what he has. but you bet. wtf why would you check? unless you want to save a couple seconds or something because you need to rush to the hospital?

[Krow]

"Third, you have the nuts. you don't care what he has. but you bet."

I agree that you must bet, but in this situation he has the third nuts. Not the nuts, he is beaten by quad fours and A-5! But you have to think the likelyhood of pocket fours, or even A-5 is slim, I say you have to give yourself a chance to make the most money and you have to value bet. You can't fear a monster hand in that situation because the fact is you have the monster hand only two rare hands are stronger. And if you would check you only help your opponent because he would in the long run lose less money and likewise you would win less money!

[Galwegian]

[ QUOTE ]
is this a joke? first of all seeing that you are both sitting on 150BB stacks and you raised 3x, he could literally have anything. Second, wtf? Third, you have the nuts. you don't care what he has. but you bet. wtf why would you check? unless you want to save a couple seconds or something because you need to rush to the hospital?

[/ QUOTE ]
please think before you spew. The question should be (imo) 'why would you value bet'? If you assign some reasonable ranges and actions (for a good opponent) it could be that betting 800 (for example) could be -ev

[Galwegian]

[ QUOTE ]
"Third, you have the nuts. you don't care what he has. but you bet."

I agree that you must bet, but in this situation he has the third nuts. Not the nuts, he is beaten by quad fours and A-5! But you have to think the likelyhood of pocket fours, or even A-5 is slim, I say you have to give yourself a chance to make the most money and you have to value bet. You can't fear a monster hand in that situation because the fact is you have the monster hand only two rare hands are stronger. And if you would check you only help your opponent because he would in the long run lose less money and likewise you would win less money!

[/ QUOTE ] I think that this is most people's immediate reaction - "I have a huge hand, don't worry too much about monsters". Of course, in most situations, that is perfectly correct. However, there are two comlicating factors here - first villain is essentially clairvoyant. He knows exactly what hand I have, whereas I have some small doubt about his hand. Second, even though my hand is third nuts, it is third nuts TIED with a whole bunch of other hands. Say you bet 800, then any good opponent with Ax will automatically put me all in - now what do I do?

[ricksonbyarmbar]

He knows exactly what hand I have, whereas I have some small doubt about his hand. Second, even though my hand is third nuts, it is third nuts TIED with a whole bunch of other hands. Say you bet 800, then any good opponent with Ax will automatically put me all in - now what do I do?

Well theres no magical forumla thier you just go ahead and pay him off- Doyle Brunson from super system.

I would agree with Doyle there, I totally see your point though, your probobly not going to get called and it becomes pretty obvious from the way you played the hand what you have but you should never the less bet, because he may call you with a big pair thinking you may be firing at it, or maybe its a chop, in which case his river check is probboly a check-raise all in, in which you would have to call. getting away from AA full is not an everday thing.

[Galwegian]

[ QUOTE ]
Well theres no magical forumla thier you just go ahead and pay him off- Doyle Brunson from super system.



[/ QUOTE ] But there is a formula in this case. I think you can work out the chances of being stacked by A5/44 and it turns out to be too big. So just check behind (imo).

[jogsxyz]

44 and A5 beats you. One 44 and three A5.
Forty-one other aces?

You don't have 3rd nut.
You have 5-45th nut.