LA Mid-Limit Hold'em

[uclaben]

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meh, I googled for like 3 seconds and found this site: http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm

Play around with it some to get a feel. For instance, I put in that the current winrate is 1.5bb/100 (STD 16) and you have to lower your confidence interval all the way down to around 65% to eliminate the negative possibility. I'm certainly no stats guy, but assuming 1/2 of the other 35% is above, that still leaves you with around a 17.5% chance that you're actually a loser in the game.

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In other words, an 82.5% chance that you're a winner?

That's by no means definitive, but IMO it's as silly to argue that 10,000 hands means "nothing" as that it's "proof" you're a winner. If you can sustain a good win rate over that many hands, you've got losing pretty dominated, it seems.

[TimTimSalabim]

uclaben,
Just think about it. 1.5BB/100 over 10k hands means you're up 150BB. A moderately big losing streak can completely wipe that out. It might tell you that you're a decent favorite to actually be a winner, but it's insignificant in determining your win rate.

[uclaben]

[ QUOTE ]
uclaben,
Just think about it. 1.5BB/100 over 10k hands means you're up 150BB. A moderately big losing streak can completely wipe that out. It might tell you that you're a decent favorite to actually be a winner, but it's insignificant in determining your win rate.

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No argument there.

Your original claim was that 10k hands is "statistically insignificant." I would agree that it won't tell you much if anything about your exact win rate, but I don't think it's insignificant - if you're losing after ten thousand hands, you're *probably* not a winning player, or not much of a winning player, anyway. It doesn't mean you're not, it just means you aren't likely to be.

Semantics, I guess.

[TimTimSalabim]

Point taken. I was basically trying to point out that all the win rates being bandied about earlier in the thread are meaningless unless they include the number of hands or hours played. And the estimates of how a good player could easily do 2bb/hr in these B&M games are completely unfounded unless someone has access to such a players records in a particular game over thousands of hours.

[TimTimSalabim]

Additionally, I would argue it's nearly impossible to determine your win rate in a B&M game these days. By the time you've gathered enough data to have a reasonably accurate estimate (about two years of playing full-time), the game has changed considerably.

[Bicycles_Biatch]

I know a couple excellent players who have been on sick loosing streaks in the 40-80 game at commerce. Something like 300 big bets.

you know the story, over-pair after over-pair cracked by one of the three chasers that are calling you down with bottom pair, and an inordinate amount of 2nd nut hands loosing to nut hands time and time again.

But like you guys have said, the games are great and the action is amazing. Unfortunately a 200 or 300 BB swing in 40-80 is out of my price range and skill set :-)

Once in a while I take a "shot" at those games... and I'm always amazed about how weak 8 out of 9 players are.

[Bicycles_Biatch]

PS... for mid limit... stay away from the Bike, to many rocks, grinders, and props.

If you want to play mid-limit mixed games... hit HP.