$114 - AQ from BB hits AAx flop

[AMT]

i would call the river without a solid read. it could be close.

[normalcy]

if you think that 55 or 66 is part of his range, which I agree with you that it polly would be...

then folding is an even easier decision than what i analyzed before.

this is a CLEAR fold. you need to be ahead in the hand about 39.4% of the time (discounting a tie) in order for the call to be correct. (3040/1200). I just don't see that you are going to be ahead 40% here.

btw.. how you play a hand on previous streets DOES NOT necessitate a particular line on the current street. I agree that the flop and/or turn was misplayed, but with 1200 chips at level 1, he is not tied to this pot.

[AMT]

66-55,A9s+,ATo+


Hero has almost 48% equity vs that range. In a limped pot, AT is more likely than AK, IMO

[greggg230]

55 is not really part of his range; who comes out betting when they flop a full house?

66 is only remotely part of his range; betting into 3 people with 66 on this flop is a little nuts. If 66 is part of his range, so are all sorts of PPs, which makes this a clear call.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
55 is not really part of his range; who comes out betting when they flop a full house?

66 is only remotely part of his range; betting into 3 people with 66 on this flop is a little nuts. If 66 is part of his range, so are all sorts of PPs, which makes this a clear call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Leading with a flopped boat here is fine, why would he rely on someone building a pot for him in a limped pot?

[greggg230]

Maybe you're right, but who does he expect to call?'

The only people who will call are aces, and without a raise pre-flop, there's no real reason to suspect anyone to have one, and if someone does, they're betting the turn anyway, or maybe even the flop after he checks.

[unfrgvn]

He either has a boat or air, IMHO. A good player is not shoving any other pocket pair on that board. You've checked called a drawless board twice, what does he think you have? You have a BB hand, does he have you on a 5 or a 6 that he thinks he can move you off with the shove? As played I guess you have to call, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him roll over 5's full.

[normalcy]

you may be right, ATM about the range you put him on.
is so, then 48% is enough to call with.

question: what range does hero have exactly 39.4% win-rate vs.?

also, are ATo, AJo, A9s, ATs really limping hands first hand from that position? maybe. i prolly wouldn't.

[ManChild]

[ QUOTE ]
if you're going to check this three times, you have to call the river

[/ QUOTE ]

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
66-55,A9s+,ATo+


Hero has almost 48% equity vs that range. In a limped pot, AT is more likely than AK, IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

66 is not in the range of a solid player