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#11
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i would call the river without a solid read. it could be close.
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#12
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if you think that 55 or 66 is part of his range, which I agree with you that it polly would be...
then folding is an even easier decision than what i analyzed before. this is a CLEAR fold. you need to be ahead in the hand about 39.4% of the time (discounting a tie) in order for the call to be correct. (3040/1200). I just don't see that you are going to be ahead 40% here. btw.. how you play a hand on previous streets DOES NOT necessitate a particular line on the current street. I agree that the flop and/or turn was misplayed, but with 1200 chips at level 1, he is not tied to this pot. |
#13
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66-55,A9s+,ATo+
Hero has almost 48% equity vs that range. In a limped pot, AT is more likely than AK, IMO |
#14
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55 is not really part of his range; who comes out betting when they flop a full house?
66 is only remotely part of his range; betting into 3 people with 66 on this flop is a little nuts. If 66 is part of his range, so are all sorts of PPs, which makes this a clear call. |
#15
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[ QUOTE ]
55 is not really part of his range; who comes out betting when they flop a full house? 66 is only remotely part of his range; betting into 3 people with 66 on this flop is a little nuts. If 66 is part of his range, so are all sorts of PPs, which makes this a clear call. [/ QUOTE ] Leading with a flopped boat here is fine, why would he rely on someone building a pot for him in a limped pot? |
#16
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Maybe you're right, but who does he expect to call?'
The only people who will call are aces, and without a raise pre-flop, there's no real reason to suspect anyone to have one, and if someone does, they're betting the turn anyway, or maybe even the flop after he checks. |
#17
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He either has a boat or air, IMHO. A good player is not shoving any other pocket pair on that board. You've checked called a drawless board twice, what does he think you have? You have a BB hand, does he have you on a 5 or a 6 that he thinks he can move you off with the shove? As played I guess you have to call, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him roll over 5's full.
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#18
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you may be right, ATM about the range you put him on.
is so, then 48% is enough to call with. question: what range does hero have exactly 39.4% win-rate vs.? also, are ATo, AJo, A9s, ATs really limping hands first hand from that position? maybe. i prolly wouldn't. |
#19
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if you're going to check this three times, you have to call the river [/ QUOTE ] |
#20
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[ QUOTE ]
66-55,A9s+,ATo+ Hero has almost 48% equity vs that range. In a limped pot, AT is more likely than AK, IMO [/ QUOTE ] 66 is not in the range of a solid player |
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