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#1
06-14-2007, 01:31 AM
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Boat on the river, massive all-in overbet
Villain has $483, I cover.
6-Max 2/4NL on Full Tilt UTG+1 Raises to 16, Hero calls 16 on the button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], blinds fold. Flop ($38) - 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Villain Checks, Hero Checks Turn ($38) - J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Villain Bets $28, Hero Raises to $72, Villain calls. River (182) - A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Villain is all-in for $395.50 Hero ??? 
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#4
06-14-2007, 02:39 AM
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Re: Boat on the river, massive all-in overbet
Bet the flop and make your life easier.
As played, vomit. Clean it up. Vomit again. I think I make a really thin, crying call and hope for a KTs or KQs. Here's my thinking. AJ and AT have to bet the flop: 1. for value against another A; 2. Because any paint on the turn sucks. TT has to bet the flop for value against an A, and to get a chance to stack off. AA might bet the flop because 2 straights can come off (though he'd probably need a read to put you on a lowball hand). This is the most reasonable monster hand that checks, but is also the most unlikely on the river. JJ becomes the only hand to really worry about. Would he 3 bet JJ on the turn? What about AA or TT? If he's 3 betting TT, he might also do it with AJ. So, what kind of player is this guy? Is he really practicing pot control with that much of a monster? What is he more likely to smooth call with ... the nuts or top 2/mid set? I think he has a combo draw or QK on the turn and puts you on AK, which is why he overbets the river. But most of all ... why do you check-behind an early position raiser on an action flop? Save your trickery for the 8 4 2 rainbow flop. Get value from A-face here. You may even get a call from JJ+ on the flop if you play your button aggressively.
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#5
06-14-2007, 02:51 AM
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Re: Boat on the river, massive all-in overbet
with no history and no prior reads via stats or anything. I fold this. He clearly doesn't think a flush is the nuts and people usually make these overbets with the nuts.
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#6
06-14-2007, 03:52 AM
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Re: Boat on the river, massive all-in overbet
[ QUOTE ]
with no history and no prior reads via stats or anything. I fold this. He clearly doesn't think a flush is the nuts and people usually make these overbets with the nuts. [/ QUOTE ] what makes you think he can't have a flush himself ? the running flush combined with KQ makes this a call imo.
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#7
06-14-2007, 08:56 AM
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Re: Boat on the river, massive all-in overbet
Would like to hear some more opinions, and thank you for your input so far!
Most have said call, but I have heard one fold. I had no read on the opponent. I had been playing with him for around 20 minutes, and had not seen him do anything extremely smart or stupid.
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#8
06-14-2007, 09:49 AM
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Re: Boat on the river, massive all-in overbet
Looks like AJ (or AT/AA) imho, so I'd fold. I don't think a good player would bluff overbet after you raised on turn. Also KQ would probably bet flop imo, and not shove on pairing and flushing river.
Flush doesn't seem likely with A and J of spades on board. And why would flush shove on paired board? Smaller vb seems like a better option.
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#10
06-14-2007, 09:55 AM
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Re: Boat on the river, massive all-in overbet
Bet the flop so you can felt this hand earlier, either there on the flop or at least on the turn. It's actually a pretty tight River decision for me, he'll have you beat some of the time with 1010, JJ, A10 and AJ but he'll have non houses some of the time too, tight decision TBH.
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