UFC Fight Night Tonight!

[Performify]

I had Stout as well at a similar line and I think it was the right side around +200.

Fisher was quick but couldn't do any damage to Stout - other than the shot to Stout's eye in the last two minutes of the third round, Stout absorbed a lot of punches and was tearing up Fisher's face at the same time.

If Stout had a little more gas and a little more aggressiveness in the second and third rounds, I think he had several opportunities where he could have finished the fight. He would pop Fisher, Fisher would step back and go in to a shell (sometimes even against the cage). Stout needed to step in and start to flurry and take advantage of those opportunities instead of continuing to backpedal.

[svj]

I'm hoping things will be better when I get to handicap fighters I can get some decent quantities of film on.

As you could tell from the writeup, most of those picks were along the lines of "I'm betting this guy because they're both unknown, and there is likely too much chalk on the favorite." Ah well. Live and learn.

Mohr/Caudillo L: Didn't see the fight, but read the results. Caudillo was simply outclassed on his feet, apparently. Upon reflection, I should not have been on that fight. Line was probably about right, if not value on Mohr.

Spratt/McCrory L: Spratt was winning this fight right up to the point where he enthusiastically jumped into a triangle. He apparently had McCrory close to a finish. I'm still happy with this pick, even though it lost.

Black/Tavares L: Full domination by Tavares. Picked the wrong side entirely. There was good value on Tavares' side.

McFedries/Radev L: Don't know what to make of this one. Radev really didn't like McFedries power, even after taking a single punch. Why he didn't try to work a shoot after that, I don't know. I still say any competent wrestler can take McFedries down and pound him out. I have seen enough film on this guy to know that his ground skills are waaay subpar.

Fitch/Carneiro W: Carneiro did exactly what he needed to do for the first round. But Fitch was just too much. Fitch was never in actual trouble, but after seeing how well Carneiro controlled him in the first, I do believe the 4:1 prediciton was a little soft. Upon looking in the rear-view mirror, there was probably no value to be had in that line.

Fisher vs. Stout L: After the first 30 seconds, it was apparent that Stout didn't have the handspeed to KO Fisher in single punch fashion. Fisher clipped him with a couple of stiff ones right away, causing Stout to back off when he should have been pressing later in the fight. Rear view: I don't think there was a lot of value in the Fisher line... a pass was probably the correct play.

[dreamcrusha]

Keep at it SVJ, great analysis and writeup, I was with ya on everyone except Radev (I liked McFedries). Better luck next time!