[1/2] set vs possible overpair : maximise profit

[Varrgasss]

UTG is a quite good player, who never open-limp, especially not UTG. I put him immediately on AA/KK.

Cryptologic Network 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB


I think my biggest mistake is on the flop : i shouldnt cap because UTG now suspects i have him beat and check-calls to the river. I should just call his 3bet right ?
What would then be the perfect line on the turn (if i called his 3bet on the flop) ? Raise or just call to raise river ?

Other question : my 3bet PF is bad too right ? Since i am almost sure that UTG holds AA/KK, i know i only play for a set and i should just overcall CO's raise (thinking he will call UTG's 3bet) and so maximise my profit if i hit ?
Thank you for your advices [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[OziBattler]

welcome and ty for taking the time to format your first post the way we likes it. seriously.

only thing I suggest is that you delete the results and any hint of results in the title ....what he ends up having doesnt matter a great deal and may influence replies.....but obv your thought process and putting him on hands is defintiely worth giving if you have it.

as for the hand. I like just calling the 3 bet on the flop for the reasons you give and then raising the turn. he is pretty much betting the turn 100% after Limp/capping and a flop 3bet that you dont cap.

any reads on CO?...they help with preflop

[Varrgasss]

Thanks for your reply. I edited my post to make the changes you recommended [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

CO is a good TAG 23/20/2, i think he wouldn't fold for another small bet because of the beautiful odds he would become...

[Bona]

I thnk your preflop 3 bet was ok. You only had a limper and a preflop raiser in front of you. At that point a cold call might have invited trouble. We don't suspect a monster hand until we see the smooth cap by UTG. We still have to call by then though.

I think AA, KK is only about half UTG's preflop range but still I think you are correct that you are behind preflop.

The flop cap may have slowed villain down with his big pair and reduced future pot size as you say but on the other hand the queen would have become a scare card for me and you sure don't want to see an A or K hit the board. (Not that he's folding anyway and he is drawing to a 2 outer so you need to value bet your set) Overall the flop cap isn't too bad and waiting till the turn might have been fine also.

River bet is just fine.

[Buzz-cp]

yeah after he 3-bets flop, waiting for a turn raise is good. If he is a bad TAG (like me [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), he will 3-bet the turn, which = even more $$$$! nh otherwise.

Buzz

[Buzz-cp]

Bona, I don't think one big card falling is going to scare us much. I'm not sure of the maths, but if we see a big card, we can be pretty sure it didn't help him. It does reduce the bets we get though, because he may fear that we just spiked OUR set!

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is a quite good player, who never open-limp, especially not UTG. I put him immediately on AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was that before or after the open-limp?

Depending on the strength of your read, you might just fold preflop. A 23/20 player is basically never open-limping something speculative up front and 99 doesn't stand up too well against a player who likely has a couple big cards (that might be paired) and a raiser.

[NIX]

Preflop. If you are that sure that UTG has AA/KK, then I fold PF. It's going to cost you 3bets to play for set value. If the blinds are super loose, it looks a little better if you cold call since they may cold call two total as well prior to UTG's LRR. But I don't want to be in that situaton, so I'd fold if I was paying attention. If UTG was an unknown, I 3-bet PF though.

As played, I don't cap the flop and instead raise the turn.

[Buzz-cp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG is a quite good player, who never open-limp, especially not UTG. I put him immediately on AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was that before or after the open-limp?

Depending on the strength of your read, you might just fold preflop. A 23/20 player is basically never open-limping something speculative up front and 99 doesn't stand up too well against a player who likely has a couple big cards (that might be paired) and a raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like he is referring to LRR. CO is the 23/20. UTG could open limp a bigger range than AA/KK based on this info.

[milesdyson]

call flop raise turn or raise/call flop raise turn is going to be better than raise/cap flop. AA has to slow down when you cap the flop because AA/99/88 = your range.