PS 60: JJ Level 2

[Fat Afghan]

PokerStars Game #10411459885: Tournament #52746385, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2007/06/13 - 04:20:00 (ET)
Table '52746385 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: d0nKKKKKKKKK (3265 in chips)
Seat 2: Ubsolute (1490 in chips)
Seat 3: Fat Afghan (1340 in chips)
Seat 4: Lucas12 (1405 in chips)
Seat 5: HOTMAIL1974 (1515 in chips)
Seat 6: Ansia (1470 in chips)
Seat 7: dgdg152 (1545 in chips)
Seat 9: brainwash (1470 in chips)
HOTMAIL1974: posts small blind 15
Ansia: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Fat Afghan [Jh Jd]
dgdg152: folds
brainwash: folds
d0nKKKKKKKKK: folds
Ubsolute: folds
Fat Afghan: raises 70 to 100
Lucas12: raises 70 to 170
HOTMAIL1974: folds
Ansia: folds
Fat Afghan: calls 70
*** FLOP *** [Ts 8h 9h]
Fat Afghan: checks
Lucas12: bets 360
Fat Afghan ????

button isn't very good, has disabled sharkscope stats (i'm guessing cos they're so bad). i'm 90% sure he has kings or aces. if he does i'm 40-60, if he has queens its a bit less. i think it's higly unlikely he has a set or a straight. does he have AK AQ etc enough to make a push here +ev? thoughts?

[simonpoker]

I would fold it here.

[greggg230]

Do people at the $50 tables re-raise with anything but QQ+ at level 2? I play at lower stakes, and they definitely do, but I imagine at the $50s it'd be pretty rare to run into AK here.

Leading out on the flop would not have been bad, since a re-raise shows you he has either a set of tens or JJ+.

Just some thoughts from a fellow at lower stakes. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[darinvg]

His play does look like QQ+.
Can we still see a turn since we also have an OESD? He might even slow down on the turn if we flat call.

[Little John]

Well, you are already a bit short with 1170. So assuming you push allin and he calls, you need to win the hand 43.7% of the time for chipEV=0. You are about 40/60 +/- a tad vs AA or KK depending on if he has a heart.

So this is really close. I'm leaning towards a push since this is a bad player. I think he some junk other than AA-QQ enough of the time to make this +chip EV. And with 1170 left I'd just take the chip ev if you think it is there.

If you each had 1500 after the flop I would fold.

[Fat Afghan]

thanks for the advice,

gregg - simple answer, yes

darinvg - i think he bets a bit too much to just call the turn. if he'd made it around 200 then i might have just called.

john - this is the option i went for, the fact that my notes on him said he was terrible swayed it. up against a good player i probably would have folded. i pushed and he had kings so it was 40-60, luckily for me i hit a seven on the turn and made my straight.