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#1
06-12-2007, 04:32 PM
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UFC Fight Night Tonight!
UFC Fight Night
Fisher vs. Stout Any submission in Fisher's recent history has been from the bottom. Since Stout should have no plans to take this to the ground, that advantage should be roughly negated. Fisher is the superior striker, but the skill difference between two proficient strikers is less pronounced than say, a striker and a wrestler that's forced to stand up. At +174, Stout has to win more than 36% of the time to be of value. While I certainly have Fisher as the favorite, when you put two primary strikers in the ring, the luck factor of who gets the big punch first swings into play. Stout +174 .57u to win 1u Luke Caudillo vs. Nate Mohr Both kids are unknown bangers. All but one of their 10 combined losses have come from submission, and neither of them have a submission to their credit. They gonna swing. There will be fireworks. When two unknown swingers get in the Octagon, bet the dog, cause this will come directly down to who gets the big hit first. Caudillo +154 .64u to win 1u McFedries vs. Radev This fight is about style clashes. McFedries has lead in his hands, but has little to no bottom ground skills, shoddy takedown defence, and gas tank issues. Radev is a wrestler, which is the perfect style to take advantage of all the above weaknesses. Hopefully Radev doesn't get knocked out while he's shooting in for a takedown. I actually have Radev as the slight favorite in this match, instead of the other way around. This is a case of the public (or books) not knowing the difference between an exciting fighter (McFedries) and a good one. Radev +126 1.19u to win 1.5u Fitch vs. Carneiro Fitch - Wrestler/Striker Carneiro - BJJ Another style mismatch. Carneiro has only gotten 1 TKO in 2002, against a rookie in his first and last match. (Strikes from the top) So it should be safe to say Carneiro has no hands. Carneiro needs it on the ground in the worst way. Even in the minor leagues where Carneiro has mostly fought, he seems to rely on riding out the top position to decision victories, as opposed to tapping people out, leading me to believe his MMA submissions aren't top flight. Fitch has pretty good takedown defence, and has very good submission defence, even if it ends up on the ground. Add in some good hands for when it's on the feet, and you've got a pretty big advantage. I have Fitch as a 4:1 favorite in this fight. Simply put, he's going to have to slip, come into the fight with an undisclosed injury, get into a fistfight with the ref, etc. to lose this match. At -335, that's too much chalk to justify a bet. If you're an action-whore though, shoot a third of a unit on Fitch. Fitch -335 1.11u to win .33u **ACTION-WHORES ONLY** Black vs. Tavares Only 1 real loss between the two. (And there's no shame in Black tapping to Shinya Aoki) Both are submission specialists who have been tearing up their respective minor leagues. My first thought is that Black being favored is probably a function of his having 2 Pride fights under his belt, while Tavares is a complete unknown. However, seeing as Black has just moved down from Welterweight, and Tavares is a natural lightweight, Black will likely have a very significant strength advantage. My personal line has Black as a 6:4 favorite. At -131, that represents a tiny (<5%) advantage. Black -131 .66u to win .5u **ACTION-WHORES ONLY** McCrory vs. Spratt Well, Spratt's won only 2 fights cleanly since 2002. He's lost 5 since then, all by submission to some of 170's best grapplers. (St. Pierre, Koschek, Newton, Lytle) Quickly. McCrory is currently undefeated at 7-0. That explains why Spratt is viewed as the dog. Spratt apparently has no submission defence. But that's ok, McCrory doesn't look like he has any submission offence. He's a striker with 1 rear naked choke to his credit. (Please note that a rear naked choke isn't a sign of a good submission game, it's a sign that you can hit a guy hard enough to make him give you his back) This is McCrory's first time in the big show... and the fact that Spratt hasn't been properly KO'd (I don't count TKO in round 1 by cut) since 2001, I think this fight is at least a coin flip, if not in favor of Spratt. Spratt .78u to win 1u As always, I would welcome any discussion, ideas, or things I may have missed. Hit me! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] 
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#2
06-12-2007, 07:01 PM
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Re: UFC Fight Night Tonight!
you should do a record of how your picks go sv, i have taken 3 but you should keep some public records. would be cool to see how you got on. Anyways good luck
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#5
06-12-2007, 11:55 PM
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Re: UFC Fight Night Tonight!
Tough night svj. Was adding some other results and went ahead and graded yours because I had the results down in front of me...
But very glad to have someone else posting picks and writeups on the events... better luck next time... get it back this weekend, etc... [ QUOTE ] UFC Fight Night Stout +174 .57u to win 1u : loss -.57u Caudillo +154 .64u to win 1u : loss -.64u Radev +126 1.19u : loss -1.19u Fitch -335 1.11u to win .33u **ACTION-WHORES ONLY** : win .33u if you're an action whore. Black -131 .66u to win .5u **ACTION-WHORES ONLY** : loss -.66u if you're an action whore. Spratt .78u to win 1u : loss -.78u [/ QUOTE ] 0-4 -3.18u, 1-5 -3.51u if you throw in the action whore picks.
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#6
06-12-2007, 11:56 PM
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Re: UFC Fight Night Tonight!
[ QUOTE ]
Has Performify posted his picks yet? [/ QUOTE ] I didn't post public picks tonight, first event in a long time. Too much stuff going on to put together a writeup unfortunately. Will have the full round of picks for UFC 72 though...
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#10
06-13-2007, 10:17 AM
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Re: UFC Fight Night Tonight!
hello all - first post. tough luck last night svj.
for those who thought about it, what did you pick in the stout/fisher fight? i thought stout at +225 (as it was on pinnacle for a while) was a good bet - the news that he'd been training with couture et al seemed to bode well for him. although, on watching it, i thought i really underestimated fisher - he was so damn quick.
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