Can anyone stake me say $100K? Negreanu offering 5-1 he wins at WSOP

[pokervintage]

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Why do people keep saying this? If you wager 20k and win, you will win 4k. Daniel is not laying 5-1, he is taking 5-1. This is not good action.

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Of course it's good action. Do you seriously believe that Negreanu has a 1 in 6 chance of winning a bracelet at this years WSOP? This is the best bet you will ever get in Las Vegas - for sure. In fact if he is 70 to 1 I'd be surprised.

pokervintage

[Spence]

Do I think DN will win a bracelet within 5 years? Yes.

Therefore giving 5:1 odds doesn't seem like a good idea.

You are serious about 70:1? Maybe for any one event, we're talking every event he can play.

[EricS31]

wow id love to make bets with pokervintage this is unreal??? if you feel hes 70:1 for each event (regardless of field size) and he plays 35 (hell probably play more) then hes (in your logic)a 2:1 dog...and youd be laying him 5:1...you still dont see how terrible that is?

[pokervintage]

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You are serious about 70:1? Maybe for any one event, we're talking every event he can play.

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You believe that Negreanu is only a 70 - 1 dog for any WSOP event that he plays? Please. I based my opinion on giving him roughly 10 to 15 events during the wsop with fields greater than 500.

But I will admit that he can probably enter 40 events per year. Thats 240 over 6 years. Yes, depending on the size of the field his estimate is not as outrageous as it first seemed.

The term "running good" is not one of my favorites but I do believe that it goes a long way in describing Negreanu's Tournament Career to this point. I do think that he plays well in tournaments just not as well as he thinks. I wonder if he is as successful playing real poker - you know poker without the help of kiddie rules like you see in tournaments.

I played in a NLH tournament today in which I was faced with a decision to wager all of my chips preflop with an A,8. The blinds were 200-400. I had 1600 in chips. I was first in second to act in a ten handed game. You call that poker? I don't. Sure, don't let yourself get into a position to have to make that decision, you might say. Do you call that poker? No, I don't.

pokervintage

[Sweet James]

i i'm a group leader on prosper.com and know how to finesse it. i can get you loans up to 25k pm me.

[Admo]

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This is the best bet you will ever get in Las Vegas - for sure. In fact if he is 70 to 1 I'd be surprised.

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PokerVintage,

If you're laying, I'm taking.

-A

ps. offer open to all

[Admo]

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"Good luck in the Series."

I don't think you really mean that.

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Surely do.

Daniel is one of the good guys and deserves every 2nd place finish he gets.

[ross84]

[ QUOTE ]
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"Good luck in the Series."

I don't think you really mean that.

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Surely do.

Daniel is one of the good guys and deserves every 2nd place finish he gets.

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you didn't happen to take that hellmuth bet too, did you??

[Greeksquared]

Why hasn't anyone done an EV calculation on this. I know the number of entries varies greatly from event to event but if he is playing in 30 events he needs to be about a 165:1 dog to make him about a 5:1 dog overall. This is a silly calculation but at least gives an idea of what is going on.

If hes playing 30 (dont know about this either) events and has an equal probability of winning (yes very bad assumption but)

100:1 --> 3:1
200:1 --> 6:1
500:1 --> 16:1

Hopefully someone can do a thorough analysis

[ciki57]

he made a final table:
http://www.pokernews.com/news/2007/6...u-lindgren.htm

anyone took the bet?