Pocket 4s UTG

[juicetin]

Playing in the $4/180 on stars
I cant find the hand history
Blinds 1000/2000 Ante 200
Hero UTG(30,000 ish) dealt 44
Button (16,000 ish)
SB (30,000 ish)
BB (130,000 ish)

Hero ????????
Final table with 4 people left. The Button and SB came from the other table so i have nothing specific on them but they just seem to be surviving and not playing very aggressive. The BB is aggressive but has eliminated the last two players by calling pre-flop shoves with less then stellar cards due to stack size. I have been aggressive pre-flop and pushed more than once and the BB has said something about it twice. The first time i pushed Q9s, got called by Jacks and hit a queen on the river and he started mouthing off even though he wasnt in the hand. The second time he called me a donk for pushing in on the button when he overlimped from the CO.

Whats the best play here.
-Raise to 6000 and shove flop
-Limp and shove if Re-raised
-Limp and fold to Re-raise
-If i just shove i have some chance of it being folded around but i am pretty sure the BB is calling with just about anything to eliminate me so do i take my chance with a coinflip in the attempt to double up
-Does anyone really fold here

[geo8o2]

u don't have to shove flop if u raise to 6000... it depends.

[WCGRider]

Well, I am going to make a post that probably will go against the general consensus, but I think I am folding here. In the 180's, the pay differential in the last few spots is huge (55 to 85 to 144 to 215 I think) And you are tied for second out of 4. From your read on this player, you are going to get called/raised no matter what he has.

If you are called, then you see a flop OOP with horrible horrible horrible odds to try and hit a set here. And you lose a bunch of your stack or all of it if you are stop and going and he has anything. (Although a stop and go is def not horrible here, and prob your best option outside of folding.)

If he raises, you your pretty much getting a coin flip where if you win, you are now in second place, but no one is eliminated. If you lose, your out with significantly less money.

I prob just fold this. If he is going to call, wait for a better hand (and preferably less players, but you are in to win so this is really about getting a better hand.)

[WCGRider]

Ok some calculations.

503.28 (Remaining prize pool)

Chip Equity

30000 .228
16000 .179
130000 .365

61400 .284 Push and Win
15800 .170
28800 .213
99800 .333

33600 .232 Push and BB folds
15800 .174
28800 .219
161400 .375

0 . 11 Push and lose

30700 .230 Push and tie
15800 .178
28800 .224
13700 .368


44 vs 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T9s,A2o+,K2o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9 o

Now, this range is very very wide, however, if he really dislikes you, and has called with less then admirable holdings before, this is a rough guess as to what his range is. If you think its tighter or lower then tell me.

.11 x .488 : 0.05368
plus
.284 x .44 : 0.12496
plus
.230 x .0358 : .008234


equals 0.186874 of the prize pool or 94$.

However, the range listed is not any hand, but rather 45.1% of them. (As much as he dislikes you, the chance of being called with an incredibly poor hand such as 25o or 83o is very low, that would hurt his chipstack far too much.)

So then 0.186874 x .451 equals 0.0843
.232 x .549 equals .127368

So thus, your equity with a push on that range is .212 or 106.7$

your current equity is 114.74$

Of course, if he will literally call you with ATC it changes the calculations, but i think (playing these a lot myself) im somewhere in the ballpark here.


And of course if one of the remaining two players wakes up with a hand, you are completely dominated and in big trouble, so that also hurts your equity. (There is not enough information given to put them on an accurate range.)

So judging by this, clearly this is not where you want to get your money in pf.

So through process of elimination, I think this is best to fold here.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok some calculations.

503.28 (Remaining prize pool)

Chip Equity

30000 .228
16000 .179
130000 .365

61400 .284 Push and Win
15800 .170
28800 .213
99800 .333

33600 .232 Push and BB folds
15800 .174
28800 .219
161400 .375

0 . 11 Push and lose

30700 .230 Push and tie
15800 .178
28800 .224
13700 .368


44 vs 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T9s,A2o+,K2o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9 o

Now, this range is very very wide, however, if he really dislikes you, and has called with less then admirable holdings before, this is a rough guess as to what his range is. If you think its tighter or lower then tell me.

.11 x .488 : 0.05368
plus
.284 x .44 : 0.12496
plus
.230 x .0358 : .008234


equals 0.186874 of the prize pool or 94$.

However, the range listed is not any hand, but rather 45.1% of them. (As much as he dislikes you, the chance of being called with an incredibly poor hand such as 25o or 83o is very low, that would hurt his chipstack far too much.)

So then 0.186874 x .451 equals 0.0843
.232 x .549 equals .127368

So thus, your equity with a push on that range is .212 or 106.7$

your current equity is 114.74$

Of course, if he will literally call you with ATC it changes the calculations, but i think (playing these a lot myself) im somewhere in the ballpark here.


And of course if one of the remaining two players wakes up with a hand, you are completely dominated and in big trouble, so that also hurts your equity. (There is not enough information given to put them on an accurate range.)

So judging by this, clearly this is not where you want to get your money in pf.

So through process of elimination, I think this is best to fold here.



[/ QUOTE ]


I just skimmed this but we need more posts like this in the forum.

If you don't understand what he is talking about please ask him and try an analysis like this out the next time you have a question about a hand.

Good post.

[bobbycharles]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok some calculations.

503.28 (Remaining prize pool)

Chip Equity

30000 .228
16000 .179
130000 .365

61400 .284 Push and Win
15800 .170
28800 .213
99800 .333

33600 .232 Push and BB folds
15800 .174
28800 .219
161400 .375

0 . 11 Push and lose

30700 .230 Push and tie
15800 .178
28800 .224
13700 .368


44 vs 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T9s,A2o+,K2o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9 o

Now, this range is very very wide, however, if he really dislikes you, and has called with less then admirable holdings before, this is a rough guess as to what his range is. If you think its tighter or lower then tell me.

.11 x .488 : 0.05368
plus
.284 x .44 : 0.12496
plus
.230 x .0358 : .008234


equals 0.186874 of the prize pool or 94$.

However, the range listed is not any hand, but rather 45.1% of them. (As much as he dislikes you, the chance of being called with an incredibly poor hand such as 25o or 83o is very low, that would hurt his chipstack far too much.)

So then 0.186874 x .451 equals 0.0843
.232 x .549 equals .127368

So thus, your equity with a push on that range is .212 or 106.7$

your current equity is 114.74$

Of course, if he will literally call you with ATC it changes the calculations, but i think (playing these a lot myself) im somewhere in the ballpark here.


And of course if one of the remaining two players wakes up with a hand, you are completely dominated and in big trouble, so that also hurts your equity. (There is not enough information given to put them on an accurate range.)

So judging by this, clearly this is not where you want to get your money in pf.

So through process of elimination, I think this is best to fold here.



[/ QUOTE ]

I agree....great post.
Not being a math guy - this really makes my head hurt.

Cornell, while I understand the concepts, is it bad that I just INTUITIVELY fold here also? I don't think I have the mental capacity to think these kind of numbers. My thought process in this spot is usually, "BB is liable to call with any two and I'm not thinking it's worth the race right here. I'll fold and wait." Obv there's no way we can calculate all of that anyway in the course of 30 secs.

[WCGRider]

Well during the course of the hand you probably dont have the time to calculate it, and so I think it is correct to just go with what your basic logic says. But what is important is to analyze it afterwards, when you do have the time. Next time you are in a similar situation you may be able to make a better decision, and at tournament final tables, one better decision can be very, very important.

[bobbycharles]

Well thought out WCG - you're here two months and making better posts than most (certainly better than me.) Keep up the good work.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
Well during the course of the hand you probably dont have the time to calculate it, and so I think it is correct to just go with what your basic logic says. But what is important is to analyze it afterwards, when you do have the time. Next time you are in a similar situation you may be able to make a better decision, and at tournament final tables, one better decision can be very, very important.

[/ QUOTE ]

Took the words right out of my mouth.

You can't do these calculations at the table but you absolutely should do these calculations for the next 100 hands that you read in these forums.

Doing so will help you immensely and will also help repay the community from which you learned how to do this kind of analysis.

[WellAdjusted06]

Bravo, Folks! Nice work.