How I play this hand? +EV or -EV

[jotta]

No reads.. First hand of this guy on my table..

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t6750)
MP3 (t2760)
CO (t4645)
Button (t955)
SB (t3300)
BB (t4245)
UTG (t2265)
UTG+1 (t3410)
Hero (t2940)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, MP2 calls t150, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Flop: (t375) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t175</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t400</font>, Hero calls t225.

Turn: (t1175) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t400</font>, Hero calls t400.

River: (t1975) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t650</font>, MP2 calls t650.

Final Pot: t3275

+EV call on flop and turn? If not, why?

[Cornell Fiji]

I don't like this at all.

Bet more on the flop, bet 280 so that the chances are lower that you get bluff raised. As played fold to the flop raise. You have 3 clean outs and 4 cards that could very well improve you to a 2nd best hand that will cost you a lot of chips.

You have to call the turn bet with your double gutter and an ace. I would have shoved the river though. A shove only needs to get called 650/1990 as often as a 650 value bet in order for it to be an maxEV play.

You might have played a spade draw the same way that you played this hand so a bluff is definitely in your range and villain only needs to be ahead 1/3 of the time for a call to be profitable for him. He played the hand fairly strong so a set and two pair are in his range and if he is those hands there is no way that he is ~70% less likely to call a shove than he is to call a value bet of 650

[Borys313]

On turn its no-brainer almost you have 8 outs and get a good price.

But on flop its pretty marginal, a good player will bet the turn alot bigger with a made hand and take a free card with a draw. So you dont have right odds.

[J.Fox]

1st post on the forum!!

well before the flop was a normal raise wif AJoff
after the flop you made a tipical continuation bet about half the pot, I would bet a litlle more here, but no big deal.

when he raised you... things become dificult I would trhow the hand away, because I porbably had only 3 outs (aces) and runner-runner
and he had a lot of chips so he could easly push you on the turn and if you dont hit the ace you would be forced to fold... And probably he wasnt bluffing because "generally" peopple dont bluff at his 1st hand at the table.

But you still won the hand!
so god luck!

P.S: sorry about the gramatical errors

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
1st post on the forum!!

well before the flop was a normal raise wif AJoff
after the flop you made a tipical continuation bet about half the pot, I would bet a litlle more here, but no big deal.

when he raised you... things become dificult I would trhow the hand away, because I porbably had only 3 outs (aces) and runner-runner
and he had a lot of chips so he could easly push you on the turn and if you dont hit the ace you would be forced to fold... And probably he wasnt bluffing because "generally" peopple dont bluff at his 1st hand at the table.

But you still won the hand!
so god luck!

P.S: sorry about the gramatical errors

[/ QUOTE ]

J.Fox,
Welcome to the forums. You should read the anthology sticky atop the page as there are a lot of valuable threads inside.

FYI - you missed the 3 nonspade kings as nut outs and the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] as a near nut out

[mayesie]

Pre-flop: ok, though limping is also an option at 25/50

Flop: I don't like the c-bet. Check, and hope to see a cheap turn. As-played, I call the small raise.

Turn: Good. You may have caught some more outs, and are trying to see a cheap river. The villain was cooperative by betting such a small amount. Unfortunately, there's not enough info available to know what the small bet means (yet).

River: Weak. If you're going to draw, then try your best to make sure you get adequately paid. I bet ~1300 here. Shoving is also a viable option to consider.

[jotta]

[ QUOTE ]

Bet more on the flop, bet 280 so that the chances are lower that you get bluff raised. As played fold to the flop raise. You have 3 clean outs and 4 cards that could very well improve you to a 2nd best hand that will cost you a lot of chips.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have to put t225 on a t950 pot. I thought that the 3 Aces and the 4 Kings was my outs.

BTW I get the correct odds to call, right?

As played I should bet more the river.. thanks for the help;

[Cornell Fiji]

AQ/AT/KJ/Spades are all in his range which significantly taint your ace outs because they will lead to you losing all/most of your chips. You also can not be entirely confident with the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] although you obvioulsy stack off if you hit it.

[mariachiinc]

I'd likely fold preflop here, but as played, I'd fold when reraised on flop. You got lucky here if you won this pot.

[xxGreat1xx]

Well I would raise pf as well...prob a little more but it doesnt matter too much. I would also put in the raise on the flop but when he re-raises I would fold. Could be looking at a variety of hands and yours is prob beat here.