Hm, what a sticky situation

[13_Xerxes]

He is representing nothing that beat you ! AJ/99 raise from the button, to isolate the short limper. 33 fold the flop, of course.

The only hand he could have is J9s (nuts on this flop, he can slowplayed with flush and str8 draw and position in an unraised pot). If he got something else I will be very surprise.
But with his turn raise, he is saying : "I can beat a jack". I am very weak and I fold, his stats are very solid.

[Nielsio]

c/r flop and then bet-fold the turn is total spew (esp given the turn-card).

I suggest leading the flop.

[tannenj]

[ QUOTE ]
c/r flop and then bet-fold the turn is total spew (esp given the turn-card).

I suggest leading the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

bam

[phantom_lord]

wtf at c/r flop. Lead!

[Ringmaster]

Well, the first thing we need to ask is what hands a 20/15 player would limp on the button. IMO we can eliminate AJ, 99, and most of the big broadway jacks from his range. A player with a PFR of 15 is raising those hands virtually always. 33 might limp, but there's no way he plays the flop like that.

That leaves JT and J9, maaaaaybe QJ, but I think that's pretty unlikely, so lets assume a worst-case scenario and eliminate that hand as well. Given his stats and the fact that he slowplayed the flop, I think J9 is more likely than JT. However, if he's like most players who just can't help but slowplay any hand stronger than top pair, we can't quite eliminate JT from his range altogether.

Giving villain a range of all J9s and J9o hands, as well as half of the possible JT combinations:

[ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,930 games 0.005 secs 1,386,000 games/sec

Board: Jc Jh 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.895% 43.92% 06.97% 3044 483.00 { KcJd }
Hand 1: 49.105% 42.14% 06.97% 2920 483.00 { JsTs, J9s, JdTc, JhTc, JhTd, JsTc, JsTd, JsTh, J9o }


[/ QUOTE ]

Even with such a narrow range, I'd still be happy to get my money in here. The only way you can fold is if you put him squarely on J9 ONLY, which is just impossible without a strong read on this guy's post flop tendencies.

[Pirelli]

I felt this all day. You are behind AJ, J9 and 99. He will have QJ and JT, J8 just as often. You also have chop equity against AJ & J9 and outs against 99 which will bail you out every once in a while.

[JackAll]

J9 is my guess - and I would be $3.50 on that if I was a betting man. I think I push and lose my stack here most of the time (which is obv not good =P)


Results?

[Jamougha]

Unless the guy is severely retarded he will never have JT after his turn raise.