#1
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100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?
Villain is 14/10/4 over 500 hands
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $229.93 BB: $9.10 UTG: $99.45 UTG+1: $25.05 MP1: $101.80 MP2: $112.35 CO: $29.04 <font color="black">Hero (BTN): $118.20</font> <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 Players) 3 folds, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $4.00</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $4.00, 2 folds <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($9.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">MP2 bets $6.00</font>, Hero calls $6.00 <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($21.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) MP2 checks, Hero checks <font color="black">River:</font> ($21.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $20.00</font> 1.Call on the button, fold when I'm SB with JTo? (I'm having trouble adjusting bc I played some shorthanded this week) 2.I call on the flop because he looked like the type that likes to fold when the board gets scary. So I figured there were a lot of good cards for me on turn and called. Does anyone think this is a good spot to do so, and what about my riverbet? |
#2
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Re: 100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?
If you make this play on Mr. McNitty, I would bet the turn if you're going to bluff, because your bluff has more weight, in that he knows he will probably have to call a larger river bet. The hammer of future bets.
He is checking the turn to you for pot control, because it looks like he is playing a pair and wants to see this showdown for cheap (as evidenced by his river check). |
#3
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Re: 100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?
Fold pf.
Flop call is ok I think because you have huge implied odds vs AA/KK/QQ/AK/AQ if you hit a king. I'd just check the river. |
#4
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Re: 100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?
I fold preflop to this Villain.
On the river, he usually has a pair and usually won't fold. He would probably fold JJ, but that hand is less likely with you holding JT. I see no value in a bet. If he has a hand you beat, he won't call. If he has a hand ahead of you, he calls almost all of them. Now, if he has a low WTSD and you believe he can fold to real pressure, then a river overbet might be worth a bash. |
#5
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Re: 100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?
definitely fold SB, button call sometimes is ok.
I would prefer bluffing the turn, too easy for him to call and showdown now. |
#6
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Re: 100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?
you probably have the best hand here > 50% of the time.
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#7
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Re: 100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?
Using someone's preflop stats to determine whether or not they can be bluffed is pretty irresponsible. There are very good 14/10s in poker and very bad 14/10s. I'd be more prone to bluff players based on their postflop hand reading skills and willingness to fold.
Also, the main thing you CAN tell from someone's 14/10 stats is that they have a relatively selective PFR range. Calling their PFR with JTo, even on Button, is a leak, IMO. I'd let it go preflop. [ QUOTE ] I call on the flop because he looked like the type that likes to fold when the board gets scary. [/ QUOTE ] Again, judging someone's willingness to fold "when the board gets scary" based on preflop stats is not a very good reason to get involved in pots with them. There are many stubborn, bad players with tight stats that you can't make fold. Your river bet seems alright, but I dislike how, and why, you got to the river. Personally, I'd bet the turn almost always. You have a ton of fold equity as almost all Villains will double barrel on this board with a strong hand. You also have outs if called and can sometimes rep the flush. |
#8
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Re: 100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?
[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I'd bet the turn almost always. You have a ton of fold equity as almost all Villains will double barrel on this board with a strong hand. [/ QUOTE ] This hand shouldn't go to the river. Villain will fold 88 on the turn. |
#9
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Re: 100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Personally, I'd bet the turn almost always. You have a ton of fold equity as almost all Villains will double barrel on this board with a strong hand. [/ QUOTE ] This hand shouldn't go to the river. Villain will fold 88 on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] We already beat 88 on the turn. Folding out a 2-outer shouldn't be huge concern there. |
#10
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Re: 100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?
thanks for the response Phresh, his stats were not the only reason because I saw him folding a lot on draw heavy boards when he seemed to have a reasonable hand, but it was definitly a big factor and a mistake it seems.
was not sure about the river, but I just don't see him calling after he checked turn and river. And didn't want to run into some weird hands bc I might misjudged his preflop hands. Betting seemed safe enough. not fully convinced about that one looking back but got a little carried away about repping a flush (like I planned on) This was obv. not my strongest hand but I'm glad I got some usefull preflop advise. thx for responses so far |
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