[NL5] Button Steal turns into draw with odds

[RipperTEQ]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.02/$0.05 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $2.05
BB: $9.38
UTG: $6.13
UTG 1: $5.70
MP1: $10.85
MP2: $2.90
MP3: $2.93
CO: $9.35
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $5.25</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, UTG 1 calls $0.05, 4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.25</font>, SB folds, BB calls $0.20, UTG 1 folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($0.57) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($0.57) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.40</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $0.80</font>, Hero calls $0.40

<font color="black">River:</font> ($2.17) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $0.80</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $4.20</font>, BB calls $3.40

Pot Size: $10.57 ($0.50 Rake)

BB had K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and LOST (-$5.25)
Hero had 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a straight, Deuce to Six) and WON ( $4.82)

I bought in half stack in order to play a 100BB game (didn't want to play deep to start). Only my 3rd hand at the table, checked down a made straight on the river on a 4 flush board in my first hand. I had 52 hands on villain at a previous table where he ran 42.31/0/.28. I'm figuring villain for either AK/KQ or a set once he min raised me on the turn. There's basically little chance he can put me on the straight, and it looks very bluffy to an outsider. Does the typical villain call this enough to make it +EV? I called only on implied odds and had no intention of bluffing the river because he seemed like a station.

Here's my math:

Where x = % of times villain calls river shove;

EVcallturn: .913(-.40) + .087x(5.97) + .087(1-x)(1.77) &gt; 0

-.3652 + .5194x + .1534 - .1534x &gt; 0
.366x &gt; .2118
x = 57.87%

Do I get a call from a villain with these numbers around 2/3rds of the time? I'm thinking that I will run into TPTK paying off or a set enough times here to make it +EV and since I play an otherwise very tight game and shove the nuts often, the metagame value is superb.

[D.L.M.]

you math looks ok, but your play could use some work.

first, if you are going to raise a hand like that on the button you need to cbet on the flop. a delay cbet is ok but more appropriate oop rather than in position.

second, your turn call was sorta loose but i expect that this donkey will give you his stack if you hit so it accually ok, at higher levels you cant count on it.

third your shove was the best idea, given his turn cr and river lead he must really like his hand and a shove will make the most money in the long run, good play there.

id fold preflop though.

[RipperTEQ]

Honestly, I just wanted to punish the open limper (I hate open limpers :-D). I had intended to just take my free card and fold the turn, as I expected him to bet the turn. I should have mentioned here, villain's fold stats are only flop 24%, turn 19%, river 14%, so where I would normally cbet, I felt like I would be throwing my money away because he never folds overs on this flop. I was done with the hand until he checked me on the turn, so I took a stab to try to take it down, when he minraised me I knew he had a hand and saw an opportunity with implied odds to call and shove a 4 on the river.

I never raise this preflop, idk why I did this time.

[CaptVimes]

I really don't like preflop. Your trying to fold out both an EP limper and the blinds with junk? The read you had on BB (loose passive)should have told you not to do this. What do calling stations do? They Call. Oddly enough this was the same read you correctly used later, on the turn, even though the call was really loose, to eventually stack him.

BB played his AK so badly in this hand he deserved to get stacked.

[RipperTEQ]

Yes, agreed. I actually didn't check the villain's stats here until he called and we went to flop, which was a mistake.

Also, I should say that boredom is a leak in my game (sometimes leads to things like this). I don't have the bankroll to move up yet though.

[CaptVimes]

How many tables? Add another one if your getting bored.

[RipperTEQ]

Depends on how my reading is going, usually 4-9 tables.

[CyberAce]

Ya you messed this up from beginning by playing it in the first place. I mean, i understand wanting to steal here.. but give your self a chance to get settled at table. You said you hadnt been there long, now isnt the time to trying off a bluff.. get confortable first and see how people are playing. You might have stats on the villain, but maybe today or that session he was tilting or playing different than normal... just get settled first. Also, steal if you want, but pick a better hand. I know you are stealing but do it with a more playable hand than 52.
Next, you compounded your first mistake by making more mistakes later on in the hand. Checking this flop was bad idea if pulling off a bluff with 52. you let him catch a reason to stay in on the turn. Only then did you get extremely lucky to not only suck out but suckout in a way to get his chips. In hindsight, I am sure you think your play was good cause you stacked him. But look at the way you did it. You had to first play bad enough to let him hit, then after that you needed to hit your straight to get his stack.. thats asking a lot. Really think about it and you will see, indeed, how lucky you got in this hand once you add up all the factors. Either dont play this at all, or follow up flop with a CB. After all, the entire point of your raising was to steal the pot... the texture of the flop didn't chance the situation. GL

[donkmagic]

with your playstyle hands like this will never be ev on the button, not that anyone folds at nl5 anyway.

[checkmate36]

Just fold pre-flop.

At 5nl just keep it basic ABC and players will happily give you their stack with all kinds of weak holdings. No need to raise junk on the button.

If you do raise on the button with these types of hands, then cbet the flop as was already mentioned.