Push flop or push turn?

Zilarik · #1 06-09-2007, 11:43 PM

Not sure what to do here. BB was an okay player considering the limit - about 25/8 after 90 or so hands. MP was loose and probably drunk. BB seemed a little iffy but stuck with his good hands, and I saw him donking TP at least twice.

This is a monster of a flop for me because at worst it's a flippo with a lot of his holdings before my fold equity, but if the turn bricks out my equity goes way down and if he's going to fold, it's going to be before he gets committed.

Do I wait for turn to for him to barrel again, and hope I improve in the process, or try to force a fold now with a gajillion outs if he happens to call?

The only things I'm really scared about are AQs and QQ. He probably would have reraised with both of those. KQ seems a bit more plausible here with the call.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($12.05)
Button ($3.65)
SB ($12.45)
BB ($16.45)
UTG ($9.80)
MP ($3.30)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.4, 2 folds, BB calls $0.30, MP raises to $0.8, Hero calls $0.30, BB calls $0.30.

Flop: ($2.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets $2.15, MP folds, Hero...

vixticator · #2 06-09-2007, 11:45 PM

Raise all-in.

Antinome · #3 06-10-2007, 12:10 AM

Jam the pot now. You know why.

MaltbyStu · #4 06-10-2007, 12:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Jam the pot now. You know why.

[/ QUOTE ]

Antimone,

I don't know why and have been stuck in these spots for some time. Please explain "why".
Given OPs reads I think we are at best 55/45 so a push is high variance given that OP has stated that villain has donked TP twice.

Thanks,
Stu

Antinome · #5 06-10-2007, 02:46 AM

Really?

We are a favorite to win this hand by the river. A 10% edge is huge, and when you add to that the fold equity -however small- that wins us the dead money, we have to push and we don't really care if he calls, though we prefer he folds. (that's usually the case in combo draws with dead money- this hand is so huge I'd have to do the math to be sure)

This is a game of exploiting small edges over and over. Folding here is giving up our rightful share of that pot to our opponents. That adds up on our opponent's ledger the same way our small edges and fold equity add up on our ledger, and we become the losing players if we do it enough.
Obviously we can't do that.

In a perfect world with the most gullible fish in the world you could make an argument for calling, hitting, and getting all your money in as a prohibitive favorite on the turn. Unfortunately for us, not enough fish are foolish enough to call when our obvious draw comes in. I don't see a read that says this guy is 'special', or will get stupid stubborn x% of the time.

I'm not saying that calling this flop isn't +EV. I'm quite sure it is. It just isn't as profitable as pushing. And it isn't close unless he's dumb as a box of turnips.

Don't fear the variance. Variance is transitory. Embrace it. It is our friend. It makes the bad players play with us.

vixticator · #6 06-10-2007, 02:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Don't fear the variance. Variance is transitory. Embrace it. It is our friend. It makes the bad players play with us.

[/ QUOTE ]That's right. Don't wait for a better spot. If you pass on any edge then you are either playing outside of your bankroll or need to learn to become fearless. There is no reason to start tilting or hit the wall when you miss. Just relax. Reload. Repeat same action even if you lose 25 times in a row.

MaltbyStu · #7 06-10-2007, 11:04 AM

Thanks, I think that's one more on my list of marginal situations that can be moved to my +EV list.

Stu

members_only · #8 06-10-2007, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]

We are a favorite to win this hand by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I didn't think FD + gutshot was a favourite over TPTK here, never mind hands better than one pair.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying that calling this flop isn't +EV. I'm quite sure it is. It just isn't as profitable as pushing. And it isn't close unless he's dumb as a box of turnips.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's as dumb as a box of turnips, you don't have very much fold equity against him either, as he won't lay down a pair.

Pushing combo draws is better the more fold equity you have, because the best case scenario is that your opponent folds. I suspect that against a lot of villains at this level it would be better to call for implied odds with tons of outs than go for a flip against top pair.

That said, I would probably push here because the size of the pot cuts down your implied odds and makes it quite feasible to get all the money in. I just don't think it's as simple as you suggest, and I think you're wrong if you think that we've got a small % 'edge' in terms of hand value here that we have to maximize by pushing. Sorry if I misunderstood your pst though.

MaltbyStu · #9 06-10-2007, 11:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:

We are a favorite to win this hand by the river.

Really? I didn't think FD + gutshot was a favourite over TPTK here, never mind hands better than one pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we knew exactly what hand he was playing then you are correct that we are behind in this situation. I guess the point is that we have to assign a range, right?

If we assign a range we are 55/45, at least that's what my range gives.

Is my thinking off?

Stu

members_only · #10 06-10-2007, 11:51 AM

what range do you have him on?

Edit: I'm not putting him on an exact hand, I'm just saying I don't think we're necessarily a favourite against the kind of hands he might have