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#1
06-09-2007, 11:09 PM
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Re: AA check
I agree. This is a very easy fold. Just about every possible draw hit and there is a strong possibility he plays a 4 like this. He doesn't play a lower pocket like this. The only thing you beat is a bluff which is very very unlikely in this situation.
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#3
06-09-2007, 11:21 PM
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Re: AA check
[ QUOTE ]
what, you're gonna fold the river now? you don't think an overpair is in his range? [/ QUOTE ]I think it is for sure but the PFR numbers indicate he would be 3-betting them. Certainly the premium hands. This is either a midpair or Aces got cracked, most likely the latter.
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#7
06-09-2007, 11:25 PM
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Re: AA check
Villain has a pfr of 17 so I would find it very strange if he isn't raising TT+ pf here. This just leaves 88 and 99 in his range of over pairs which are the only hands we may beat. For villain to take this line with an over pair is strange. I would expect him to check/call 88 and 99 in this spot and think he would have bet/raised earlier in the hand.
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#8
06-09-2007, 11:33 PM
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Re: AA check
[ QUOTE ]
Villain has a pfr of 17 so I would find it very strange if he isn't raising TT+ pf here. This just leaves 88 and 99 in his range of over pairs which are the only hands we may beat. For villain to take this line with an over pair is strange. I would expect him to check/call 88 and 99 in this spot and think he would have bet/raised earlier in the hand. [/ QUOTE ] Many villains with these stats raises the middle parts of their range 22-66 Q-high, K-high etc and donīt raise with with their good hands. The stats do tell us he has absolutely no idea what he is doing, but he likes to to put in bets, calls and raises in random doses with complete gabage. If we are not good here 20% of the time Iīd be somewhat surprised.
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