$10NL, 79s in BB...push or fold?

[nilesharding]

villian in SB has been very active, raising many hands...i called PF figuring i had a good chance to stack someone (and had been running hot). when this flop comes out, i am obviously happy, but not with the subsequent flop action. CO is very nitty. is this a push or easy fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($9.90)
Hero ($30.55)
UTG ($12)
Button ($14.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $0.4</font>, Hero calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.30.

Flop: ($1.20) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $11.6</font>, SB calls $9.40 (All-In), Hero ????

[Pokey]

Your hand turned bad when UTG three-bet all-in, and it turned to a steaming pile of doggy doodoo when SB called the all-in. Sure, maybe someone is getting out of line here, but straights, flushes, and sets are going to be the norm, here. Even if an opponent "only" has two pair, it's a better two pair than yours. Maybe SB has an overpair -- maybe -- but I don't think UTG does. You're probably drawing to four outs (maybe less), and you don't have anywhere near the pot odds to do so. Swear and fold.

[jmgambler]

This board is so draw happy and you have 2 AI's in front of you I would let this go, its not even top 2, even if you were ahead here, which I doubt, on the turn and river against 2 players you would have to dodge about 41 cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[nilesharding]

thanks for the reply, pokey. i have always enjoyed your posts and respected your game, and have learned a lot from them. does anything change here if i hold top two (e.g., something like 9c7c3c flops out)?. or does this action always dictate a fold given reads of these players?

[nilesharding]

[ QUOTE ]
This board is so draw happy and you have 2 AI's in front of you I would let this go, its not even top 2, even if you were ahead here, which I doubt, on the turn and river against 2 players you would have to dodge about 41 cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, good to know this is standard. i instamucked, but felt weird about it. then felt crappy after the river (results oriented) when SB turned up AcTd and CO mucked JcTs. ehehe, guess my read on CO was very wrong. well, guess i was a dog to both players against ~19 outs.

[Pokey]

Top two might play a little differently. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Still, in the case I quoted there were no straights OR flushes on the board, whereas in your situation there were both straights AND flushes possible. Now, I discredit the chance of a straight on this board, but a combo-draw (A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or some such) is certainly possible, and is a slight favorite against you. Add in the other player (whichever one is the other player) who likely has a decent hand of his own and you could easily have the worst hand AND the worst draw right now, which is an ugly situation leaving you drawing nearly dead in the pot. Here's how often you win against some hands in this case:

AT -- 65.8%
AA-JJ -- 56.8%
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] -- 48.8%
[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] -- 16.6%
77 -- 12.9%
T9 or T7 -- 12.1%
TT or 99 -- 4.0%

It's hard to think of many other hands that villains could have, here. If you're super-lucky, one has a draw and the other has an overpair, at which point you're getting about proper pot odds to call. If you're NOT super-lucky you're flushing cash down the potty. This is an unfortunate situation, but I just don't see you faring well enough against the likely holdings of these two opponents to warrant a call, here.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

i instamucked, but felt weird about it. then felt crappy after the river (results oriented) when SB turned up AcTd and CO mucked JcTs. ehehe, guess my read on CO was very wrong. well, guess i was a dog to both players against ~19 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check it out:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

903 games 0.005 secs 180,600 games/sec

Board: Tc 9c 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.320% 36.99% 00.33% 334 3.00 { 9s7s }
Hand 1: 40.089% 39.53% 00.55% 357 5.00 { AcTd }
Hand 2: 22.591% 22.04% 00.55% 199 5.00 { JcTs }
</pre><hr />

That means that you had 37.3% pot equity and it would have cost you 30.7% of the pot to get in the hand; you walked away from about $2.40 in equity, but against villain's RANGES you were dogmeat. When I plugged the likely ranges for both opponents into PokerStove, it spat out a less-than-17% pot equity for you, which would have been bad, bad news. Maybe my range was too tight (apparently it was), but I still think you made a good fold.