Analysis of a downswing

[Simplistic]

[ QUOTE ]
I remember reading a post a while back where someone ran BB/100 and the SD on a computer program that spit out the normal distribution of the winrate for 100 players over 100K hands (I would be very grateful if someone had a link). The numbers he input where, I think, 2PTBB/100 and an SD of 45. This was for limit and this is a very good winrate. The program ran all the numbers and reported winrate for those 100 imaginary players over 100K hands. The results were that 4 out of the 100 people had a winrate of below .4BB/100 or almost break even over 100 thousand hands. Those are scary numbers. So, to really know your true winrate you might need more than 50K hands, you might need a million to be absolutly sure. This means that even the best poker players will have 20k, 50k or even 100k breakeven streches. And you never know when it will happen. All you can do is improve your game cause most people, even some excellent players, underestimate the true power of Variance.

[/ QUOTE ]the reason why NL have a much higher winrate/hand is because of the ability to exploit opponents mistakes. there WILL be stretches where you're running bad, but it is not even close to being comparable to limit.

[Mal_Pais]

[ QUOTE ]
phil was talking about full ring, not 6max.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be wrong, but I think Phil Gordon was advocating these preflop raises for tournament play.

[BalugaWhale]

tarheel- I didn't move down because Party doesn't offer 10NL.

All- This post became somewhat roll-oriented, so heres my quick take on that: A roll is player dependent. I need a big roll, because I make high variance plays. Simple as that.

[mudbuddha]

now u get it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[UR75]

correct me if I'm wrong but folding AQ UTG wouldn't be that wrong was said about Full Ring not about 6-max. I think I'm quite nitty and I would never dream of folding AQ UTG. I've played 500K hands of 200NL and have raised it UTG every single time (100%). It is definitely a mistake at 6-max IMO especially at SSNL where every dufus is playing Ax all the time for a raise.

[cooker3]

Lol, I have over 2k and still at 25nl, I am such a bankroll nit.

[MakeMuuney]

I have 10K and i am playing NL100. At least I can stand a downswing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[fees]

who the [censored] ninja bumped this?

[ronitonline]

The part about overvalueing hands while in a downswing is 100% true for me, especially in losing sessions. Not so much as I have a semi-bad session and then I come back the next time and am overvaluing hands trying to win my money back but if I am 3-4 tabling and down 2 buyins I won't laydown top pair to extremely bad players, etc and just give away chips with bad hands. Definitely something I need to work on but still, last night losing 4.3 buyins with a W$SD of 48% is pretty ridiculious.

[Keyser.]

pretty sick that Baluga not only played 25nl but actually went busto at it only a year and a half ago