When to think deeper?

[PokerEveryDay]

How do you really know at what level your opponent is thinking at? Lets assume you know he understands what his hands are, and you know what range of hands he plays, and if he rarely bluffs or bluffs a lot, mixes things up or is consistent. When do you know to assume he thinks any further of his opponents? We all get a feel of our opponents in time and play each one differently as a result of this.

I'm hoping to understand more accurately when to think deeper than the first level, which is going to happen a lot. Too many times I find myself either thinking too shallow or too deep and thus making the wrong decisions. I need to get better at folding that 2nd best hand, or calling with Ace high. Like folding a set vs. a higher set, or vs. a str8. Calling or even raising with Ace high after the river. I'm speaking of NL play. I guess another question is, at what level do most experienced poker players play at?

Thanks

[Jon1000]

[ QUOTE ]
at what level do most experienced poker players play at?

[/ QUOTE ]

one level deeper than whatever their opponent is playing at. in terms of how to tell where your opponents are, watch the hands that they show down and keep track of their play on every street. Did they bet a turn w/ ace high when an obvious flush draw missed and they had been check called by their opp both on the flop and turn? did they bluff a four card straight board and get called down by top two? did they 3 bet trip xs with no kicker despite playing a nit? etc.

[PokerEveryDay]

I guess my question was thinking to deep for you guys? HA!

[Jon1000]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you really know at what level your opponent is thinking at? Lets assume you know he understands what his hands are, and you know what range of hands he plays, and if he rarely bluffs or bluffs a lot, mixes things up or is consistent. When do you know to assume he thinks any further of his opponents? We all get a feel of our opponents in time and play each one differently as a result of this.

I'm hoping to understand more accurately when to think deeper than the first level, which is going to happen a lot. Too many times I find myself either thinking too shallow or too deep and thus making the wrong decisions. I need to get better at folding that 2nd best hand, or calling with Ace high. Like folding a set vs. a higher set, or vs. a str8. Calling or even raising with Ace high after the river. I'm speaking of NL play. I guess another question is, at what level do most experienced poker players play at?

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it's hard to answer your post, b/c it seems that it reveals a slight lack of understanding of the levels of thinking. as for when to think more deeply or more shallowly, that's something you should be able to figure out by playing your opponents and observing their play and using their shown down hands for information in reconstructing their play/level of thinking in the particular hand. there isn't some magic way to tell you when to think more deeply than less deeply, unless you're looking for advice along the lines of you notice a player has the ability to lay down his top set on a flush completing river after a bet and a raise from two ep players meaning you can probably 3rd level him.

[PokerEveryDay]

Thanks for the reply, that is correct, thinking just one level past your opponents is what we all need to be doing. Like I mentioned, you play each opponent based on the info you get. Is it not difficult to lay down a strong 2nd best hand? Or, call will just Ace high after the river? I guess this can only be answered by you at the moment it happens. As for laying down a set (assuming on the flop), unless a bigger full house or a str8 is on the board, I don't think I have ever seen anyone lay down a set. So is not correct that most players only care about what cards they have and what you might have, and play accordingly? My guess is most people don't think about what their opponent thinks you think he has, or the 3rd level. I'm looking for a default level of thinking overall when I don't know my opponent well enough. I seem to over think too much and get into trouble over silly plays at times.

[Jon1000]

[ QUOTE ]
As for laying down a set (assuming on the flop), unless a bigger full house or a str8 is on the board, I don't think I have ever seen anyone lay down a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

You wouldn't ever see someone laying down the set, since they mucked, but I guarantee you've been part of a hand where someone laid it down.

[ QUOTE ]
So is not correct that most players only care about what cards they have and what you might have, and play accordingly? My guess is most people don't think about what their opponent thinks you think he has, or the 3rd level. I'm looking for a default level of thinking overall when I don't know my opponent well enough. I seem to over think too much and get into trouble over silly plays at times.

[/ QUOTE ]

It really depends on the limits you play. For the limits I play online, I'm on the second level by default unless I feel as though I'm in a pot with another second leveler who I can bluff by representing a larger hand. I'm the same way live unless I'm playing big. I guess the second level should be your "default" but I just don't like the term, b/c the whole process should be fluid.

[aaokwitme]

players meaning you can probably 3rd level him.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the levels? And how many are there?

[JayKon]

[ QUOTE ]
players meaning you can probably 3rd level him.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the levels? And how many are there?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my guess:

Level 1: What do I have?
Level 2: What do I think you have?
Level 3: What do you think I have?
Level 4: What do you think, I think you have?

I've never been able to go past that and (in todays games) it doesn't seem necessary anyway.

[Astyanax]

5th step is just meta-game

[MychCumstien]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm looking for a default level of thinking overall when I don't know my opponent well enough. I seem to over think too much and get into trouble over silly plays at times.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can probably easily default to level 2 thinking against relatively inexperienced players. If you know that you're up against a "thinking" player, then go to level 3/4 and so on. It really does depend on the player.

This brings up a great point on bluffing. It may sound obvious, and I"m sure you've heard it before, but when running a bluff on a "thinking" player, make sure you rep it from the beginning; as that player will go into the tank and think about each street, and whether or not your plays make sense.

The easiest bluffs to snap off, are the ones where the betting isn't consistent. I see rookies do this a lot and get pwned by the more experienced players.

Ok, the other option, which you should be doing all the time anyway, is breaking down the math. This requires thinking obviously, but it's a very different kind of thinking.

Breaking down the math takes all the guessing out of the equation, i.e. you take your hand vs. the size of the pot vs. the villains hand range and look at the equity. If you're getting the pot odds to call, then make the call, or the bet, etc. you get the idea. Poker stove it if you need to. but get in the habit of looking to the math. This will greatly simplify your decisions, and take "guessing" out of the equation.

Regarding folding a set to a bigger set, i.e. set over set, I think folding here is hardly ever correct. Most pros will tell you that set over set happens so infrequently, that folding a set is terrible in the long run. Now folding a set to a possible straight or flush is a different animal entirely. But losing to set over set is just plain bad luck. You pay them off, move on and hopefully have better luck next time IMO.