River Raise

[Mook]

OK, the rookie will take a shot at it.

UTG's range seems pretty easy to figure out. He's only limping in 3% of the time, for God's sake. Even I limp in more than that, and I know what I'd have here. 99-77, QTs, JTs, *maybe* T9s-87s, and that's about it. I've gotta think UTG puts CO on two big cards and isn't afraid to lead out his 99 or 88 until the T comes on the river.

CO's line smells like a flopped overpair that tried for an overcall from you on the turn. Maybe he's floating with AK or AQ trying to pick up 4 bluff outs on the river - card frequency says this happens a lot more often but in reality I think you'll see an overpair ~1/3 of the time here, maybe more if he's got a case of FPS.

Even if I had AQ and thought you were *both* uber-nits who would fold for one bet on the end, your line here is so bizarre I'd look the river raise up just to make a note of it. Then again, I only play live, so crying calls are the only way I can get that info. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

I guess for the record I'll say ... UTG+1 folds 88, CO calls and shows you either AK or AT.

Mook

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If your read on UTG+1 is spot on, your raise on the river definitely increases your equity in the hand. I still think, though, its -EV.

CO is not folding any hand you beat and some non-zero percent of the time, the river improved UTG+1's hand enough for him to call.

Ultimately, you're bluff-raising at a protected pot.

Mild (but intellectually advanced) case of FPS [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[SeaEagle]

For starters I think you're underestimating the need for you to be able to represent a plausible hand. Even players who aren't especially analytical can intuitively smell when something looks fishy. And this play really looks fishy. I'm having a really hard time figuring out what hand you would have checked when a total blank came on the turn but then improved to enough for a c/r when the T falls. When people can't figure out what you could be holding, they tend to make a crying call more often, sometimes just to see what you have. In this position, I would strongly consider calling you with as low as QJ because I'm getting 13-1, your play smells like a missed draw, and even if I lose I'll get a bunch of information on your play for only a single BB.

As for the hand ranges:
UTG almost surely has a pair less than top pair. If I had to guess in a very tight range, I'd guess 65s or 55. I think he's almost always folding facing two.

CO has an overpair a whole lot of the time, probably more than half. A lot of the rest of the time, he caught top pair on the river. He's seen one player 3-bet the flop. He's had another call 2 on that flop and then bet on a turn card that didn't change anything. And he's still willing to bet on the end. A bluff doesn't make sense with A/good kicker because if his opponents will fold for 1 bet on a relatively safe T, then Ax is probably beating them anyway and he should just check behind. Maybe you have a special read, but I wouldn't think 2.5 PFA is enough aggro to bluff at this pot with any regularity.

A shorter way of saying all that: What hand raises PF, puts in 3 on the flop, calls 1 in a protected pot on the turn, bets into two players on the river, and the folds for a single bet getting 13-1?

[StrictlyStrategy]

Also keep in mind you're trying to convince a live small-stakes player to bet-fold the river, which like Goofball said will never happen with a better hand.

[James.]

i'm in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. i look like an ubernit.

15/12/1.9 UTG+1 limps, 22/4/1.2 MP calls, a 38/16/2.5 CO raises, an unknown sb semicoldcalls, i call in the BB, all call.

Flop(10sb): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

sb checks, i check, UTG+1 bets, MP folds, CO raises, sb folds, i 3bet, all call.

Turn(8.5bb): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

i check, UTG+1 bets, CO calls, i call.

River(10.5bb): T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

i check, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, i checkraise, UTG+1 calls, CO folds.

UTG+1 wins the pot with his set of 3s.

at the time i really felt spewy when this went down. i started thinking about it, and if UTG+1s range could be narrowed down to the point that about only 10% of it is able to call or 3bet my river c/r this play could have some merit.

at the time i really thought CO was making a stab for the pot. i see players like that chase overcard outs pretty frequently, as well as fire a barrell at a big pot if they think that's the only way they can win it.

problem as it turns out is there are too many factors to overcome to even think about having any sort of success. it becomes quite a parlay that they both fold, and anyone that knows sportsbetting knows parlays are sucker bets. UTG+1s range was really narrow by the river, but his check confused me into making a pretty bad play. needless to say i'm sure a couple notes were made, and i was paid off on my legitimate hands the rest of the night.