NL 10 - TT on the button, OESD+Overpair underplayed ?

[antisocialgrace]

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why do you have to fold the river? You just said no one would check an A or a made hand on that board, I don't see how the 7 on the river changes anything.

CO just saw the turn go Check Check Check and MP Checks the river too. If I was CO i would take a shot at this pot more than 50% of the time, and TT beats more than 50% of CO's hands.

If you think you had the best hand on the flop, and the A didn't change anything (the most likely player to have an A is MP) then I think you have to call the river with your under-repped hand.

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Actually as played the river fold isn't unreasonable. At these stakes this is exactly how a lot of people would play AK. Had OP reraised the flop he might have protected his hand enough to justify showing down. I might still make the call according to the reasoning good players wouldn't turn-check aces on an obvious str8 board. I wouldn't be enthusiastic about it though.

I might also have popped it up a little more preflop. Personally I loathe taking 9-9 10-10 and JJ to a flop in a multi-way.

[Javanewt]

I would like to hear a little more about the hand as played and the river. I'd fold. Although I think it's stupid to play an A this way, I see it done all the time at these stakes. CO could easily have a 7, too.

Who else calls and why? Do you think CO is stealing? Funny, if CO isn't stealing and doesn't have a 7, but has a hand that beats hero, CO is very bad, unless CO has TcJc [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[CaptVimes]

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I would like to hear a little more about the hand as played and the river. I'd fold. Although I think it's stupid to play an A this way, I see it done all the time at these stakes. CO could easily have a 7, too.

Who else calls and why? Do you think CO is stealing? Funny, if CO isn't stealing and doesn't have a 7, but has a hand that beats hero, CO is very bad, unless CO has TcJc [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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If Cut off is a normal NL10 player, I think they are rarely stealing here. That is my problem with the whole hand from the begining. What did cut off call the flop with? Was it a draw, a set afraid of a straight, top pair, overpair, overs? Without raising the flop or betting the turn we just don't know on the river.

The other problem is that this river is a great spot to steal a pot. Board paired and noone bet that A. Steals at NL10 seem to be either really small bets or big over bets however. This seems more like a value bet.

Without a read that the guy is FOS I think the pot is too small and we have too little invested in it to make the call. Edit: Oh yeah, we have mp1 who was PFR and bet the flop yet to act. It may be a mistake but it is a small mistake. Half pot bet I probably call.

[Specialwon]

I agree that stealing is just a bit too bold and cunning for most NL10'ers. I think half the time we get shown the ace, which he misplayed, and the other half we get shown either the straight, a set, a boat, a 7 or trash in about equal measures. Because we have 2:1 on the pot, it is a very close call. With 2 live players and with enough time to think, I'd fold. On the day with 15s to act, I'd probably call and puke.

[pterodactyl_]

I raise this flop for value as our equity in this pot is great between the overpair and OESD. Having position makes this even better because we will be better able to control the pot size on later streets if any scare cards come.

As played, checking the turn is good. What would you be trying to represent by betting on the A turn? What type of hand flat calls behind two players on that flop and then suddenly has a good enough hand to bet on the A turn. A8/A9 are a stretch and I doubt you call the flop with overcards too often.

The river is pretty mehh either way. I think the EV is pretty close for either calling or folding. Folding is probably the best option as MP is still to act behind you (even though he probably doesnt have a hand he can call with, its still a possibility). However, a call has good metagame value. I still vote fold though.

Also, I'm surprised no one mentioned this (I didnt see it at least), but I would consider RR PF with position and squeezing with this hand. I would be a little hesitant to do this without stats however. So no PT, I'm guessing?