AA in trouble?

[NIX]

You realize we're on the turn Ozi?

[OziBattler]

[ QUOTE ]
You realize we're on the turn Ozi?

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm, yeah, apparently not.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

ridiculously easy fold

[Tim Brice]

[ QUOTE ]

This is wrong, even assuming BB folds and you are heads up with MP1. Then you are assuming that MP1 will fire another barrel on the river, so you have to add 1BB to the pot which results in 11.7-2 or 5.9-1, respectively.
Second, for computing the percentage of how often you need to win, you have to add 1 to 5.9 (or 5.3 in your book).
Hence, 1/(5.9+1) is your percentage, not 1/5.9

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give the mathematical explanation as to why to add one?

[unterfish]

Yah. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[unterfish]

Simple Example:
You have a flush draw which is approximately a 20% chance.

Say, the pot is 3$. Your opponent is betting 1$ which makes it 4$ to the pot.
Now, you can have two alternative calculations:
1) You can say: 20% of the times when I put 1$ to win into the 4$ pot which makes it a 5$ pot, I win 5$, so my expected win is 20% times 5$ = 1$.
2) You may say: 4 out of 5 times I lose 1$, but 1 out 5 of times I win 4$.

Both are equivalent.

Do you see why? (God, I suck in teaching, especially in English [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] )

[slicer65]

call down. You said he is a complete goof and plays junk.

[slicer65]

Im correcting myself. I confused BB with MP1. His tight play with a raise on the turn is an easy fold.

[RabidTortuga]

I'm folding and hating it.