AA in trouble?

TarHeel100 · #1 06-06-2007, 08:53 PM

Reads:

BB: Total goof. Playing about 85% of his hands, raising preflop w/ below marginal hands. Have caught him betting and raising with a lot of garbage.

MP1: Also, playing an extremely high number of hands, but extremely passive postflop. For example, prior to this hand, he had only show turn aggression about 2 out of 40 hands. I had just called him down on a suspicious bet where he did have the winning flush, so the only hands I've caught him betting were very strong.

A bet from BB means nothing to me, however, if MP1 has a hand, then it could get very expensive to call down bet, raise, bet, raise.

How do you play this?

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero caps, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP1 raises, Hero.........

kerowo · #2 06-06-2007, 08:56 PM

You have the read that MP1 is passive. Passive players don't raise. You have two outs. You can let this go.

A rule of thumb in the micros is that barring reads you don't have one player may try and bluff you off a hand, but two won't.

NIX · #3 06-06-2007, 09:07 PM

If MP1 has bet his monsters 2 times on the turn and hasn't bet his other 38 hands, he has three queens or better quite often. You can fold here.

Tim Brice · #4 06-06-2007, 10:00 PM

It is a mutliway pot which is going to make things very expensive if you continue to play. Your sample size is pretty small though. The pot is not huge, but it is a decent size.

I am thinking I would fold, but I am curious to see what people say. It is situations like these that I feel very uncomfortable with at the table.

Odds are about 5.3:1, so you need to be good roughly 19
% of the time to make the call profitable. I know you have already done the odds, I am just going over them for my own sake.

Thriller · #5 06-06-2007, 10:12 PM

I'd probably fold here, but it would be tough. I am trying very, very hard not to get so attached to AA.

nerdking · #6 06-06-2007, 10:24 PM

48 hands isn't the greatest sample size, but this is .05/.10, where passive players are practically in a coma most of the time.

I'm really torn between calling down and folding here.

Buzz-cp · #7 06-06-2007, 10:27 PM

I think a turn fold. Also this isn't stats after 40 hands, it's a read which is observed behavior.

nerdking · #8 06-06-2007, 10:38 PM

looking at the action again I think a turn fold is 100% correct here.

unterfish · #9 06-06-2007, 10:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Odds are about 5.3:1, so you need to be good roughly 19
% of the time to make the call profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is wrong, even assuming BB folds and you are heads up with MP1. Then you are assuming that MP1 will fire another barrel on the river, so you have to add 1BB to the pot which results in 11.7-2 or 5.9-1, respectively.
Second, for computing the percentage of how often you need to win, you have to add 1 to 5.9 (or 5.3 in your book).
Hence, 1/(5.9+1) is your percentage, not 1/5.9.

Regarding the hand, given the read: You are never good here 1/6.9 times of 1. Fold is good.

OziBattler · #10 06-06-2007, 11:09 PM

fold and be happy that you didnt get CRed on a Q or even JJ LOL. if these two guys are totally out of line then you can profit plently on later hands.

also no one has mentioned the backdoor flush and str8 draws yet but thats probably because they may not matter much and arent clean. no, I cant be bothered doing the math. the problem with calling and catching one of your backdoor cards is that you probably then have to see the river and then might be tempted to call (and could be drawing dead) and lose another bet(s).