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#11
06-06-2007, 09:45 PM
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Re: Folding an overpair on a safe river.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you underestimate how many bad tags bet because you checked. also, hypothetically if he only bet with hands >TT then it means him real easy to play against right? call it unintentional (or intentional) range merging. [/ QUOTE ] I guess you missed my read on him as a straight forward player (even though it was only over 50 hands). You keep changing my villain to either bad tag or thinking tricky tag. Thanks for the replies though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] even if he's str8 forward you're ahead of tp (like T9s or J9s or A9s & 66 and flopped two pairs like 98 and 97) i think this is an ez call, he doesn't have an overpair and a flopped 2p got counterfeited and there's a town of missed str8 draws i call and get my hand ready for a fist pump. if it's shipped i pump, if it's not i break my mouse. 
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#12
06-06-2007, 09:46 PM
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Re: Folding an overpair on a safe river.
river is the best card in the deck for you, you are now ahead of a sh1tload of 2 pair combos. EASY call here.
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#13
06-06-2007, 10:01 PM
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Re: Folding an overpair on a safe river.
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explain why he can't have 98 or 78? or why he'd c/c with a set or straight [/ QUOTE ] Not saying he can't have 78 or 98. I'm just saying he's either not VBing them there, or at least not that big of a VB, he might do a small VB somewhere between 20-30 with 98 or 78(which i would have called most likely). If he was going to CR the flop with any of those hands though i think 98 and 78 would be the most likely candidates, since they are the most vulnerable. Its heads up, with no flush draw, i don't think there is any harm in him flat calling on the flop with a set or straight. I also think check raising is fine as well. But i think without knowing his tendencies its close to 50/50 what he would do on the flop in a heads up pot. Also something we haven't really talked about is how big that VB on the river is a scary size considering i checked the turn. If my read is correct (debatable) and he is in fact a straight forward player then he would only be doing this with hands that beat me.
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#14
06-06-2007, 10:03 PM
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Re: Folding an overpair on a safe river.
[ QUOTE ]
Also something we haven't really talked about is how big that VB on the river is a scary size considering i checked the turn. If my read is correct (debatable) and he is in fact a straight forward player then he would only be doing this with hands that beat me. [/ QUOTE ] that's not a big vbet in my book
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#15
06-06-2007, 10:06 PM
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Re: Folding an overpair on a safe river.
[ QUOTE ]
that's not a big vbet in my book [/ QUOTE ] Dang, well i guess i need a new book. I Guess the overwhelming vote is that i'm either a huge puss or out thinking myself. Thanks all.
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#19
06-06-2007, 10:37 PM
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Re: Folding an overpair on a safe river.
raise the river
you get value out of random 2 pair hands that you beat on the river i dont see him slowplaying a set this hard on such a drawy board he could have a bigger overpair but you should still value bet. he could put you on a busted draw and make a hero call with a 9 or worse
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#20
06-06-2007, 11:08 PM
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Re: Folding an overpair on a safe river.
Preflop, flop, and turn are fire, but I'd probably bet a little more on the turn.
This river should be a snap call against most players ESPECIALLY on this river. You can also raise if you want, but you have to be pretty confident in your reads on villain. You can minraise or do all kinds of other crap here if you're willing to call a shove vs the right players. Here is one of the little things I think a lot of people don't realize. A lot of times people don't realize the board paired and that their hand got counterfeited. You'll see people 'value bet' flopped two pair here and [censored] because they don't understand what happened on the river. You'll also see lots of total air and missed draws here.
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